Has The Big Darcy Kuemper Signing Been Worth It For The Capitals This Season?

It was very clear for a couple of seasons that the Washington Capitals needed to do something about their goaltending situation. Washington has not had great goaltending for a long while now. Even before their Stanley Cup winning season in 2017-18. While Braden Holtby was very good in those playoffs, that season he struggled leading to him starting that playoff run on the bench.

Since then, it has been some good goaltending but at the same time very streaky goaltending. That was probably the most frustrating thing about the goalie situation for the Capitals for the past few seasons. Ilya Samsonov would play well for a period of time then struggle for a while. Vitek Vanecek would come in and do the same.

It was even more irritating that this was not a game to game thing, it could also happen in games. Particularly with Samsonov. He would be playing very well in a game, making some great stops, keeping his team in games or helping them hold leads. Then he would let in a goal that you would need to squint at, looking for a reason why that went in.

Making a long story short, it was the inconsistency that led the Capitals to wanting to go get a new goalie. Which they did this past offseason when they signed Darcy Kuemper. Instead of waiting for one of Samsonov or Vanecek to finally take the job and run, maybe on a cheaper contract, they went out and got a goaltender that cost a little more, but was a proven number one guy.

So, here we are. Basically at the halfway point of the season, the NHL all-star game. Has the big signing in Kuemper been worth it?

Well what does worth it mean? I’m not sure it’s as easy as a questions as it sounds like. First off, has his play been better than Samsonov and Vanecek in the past couple of seasons?

You would have to say yes. Numbers aside, Kuemper has been more consistent game to game than both of their previous goalies. Kuemper has had his ups and downs throughout this season but, at least to me, they have not been quite as dramatic as Samsonov or Vanecek.

I still think Kuemper has a bit of the Samsonov’s, that being a tendency to let in a weird looking goal after making some great saves. For the past few seasons with Samsonov that seemed to be once a game. For Kuemper, while still a lot more frequently than I would like, that happens less.

Stats wise, at least while on the Capitals, Kuemper has clearly been better. From 19-20 to 21-22 Samsonov had a 2.81 goals against average with a .902 save percentage in 89 games played. Vanecek played in 79 games during that time, he had a 2.68 GAA with a .908 save percentage.

This season, in 34 games played, Kuemper has a 2.62 goals against average and a .915 save percentage to go along with it. The GAA is just about the same as Vanecek, but the save percentage, arguably a more important stat when it comes to judging a goaltender, is much better than both Samsonov and Vanecek.

Where this argument gets a little weird is this. Kuemper this season, stats wise, has not been much better than Samsonov or Vanecek, Samsonov now with the Maple Leafs, and Vanecek with the Devils.

Samsonov this year has a GAA of 2.42 and a save percentage of .913 in 25 games played. Vanecek, in his 32 games played, has a 2.29 GAA and a .917 save percentage. When talking about stats, Vanecek has been better.

You also need to consider a couple of other things. Age, and the price of the goalie. Kuemper is obviously the oldest of the three at 32-years-old. He is also the most expensive of the three having a yearly cap hit of $5.250 a year until the summer of 2027.

Vitek Vanecek is the next oldest at 27, his cap hit is $3.4m, that contract expiring after the 24-25 season. Samsonov is the youngest of the three at 25 and his cap hit is the smallest at $1.8m, that deal basically being a prove it deal with it being for just one season.

To wrap up this portion of the argument, Kuemper is older, more expensive, and when you look at the stats this season has not been much better, if better at all than the Caps two previous goalies.

I think we also need to look at a least one more thing. The strength of the teams of these three players.

Just a note, the following numbers you’re about to see are at 5v5, not total.

The Capitals have let up a lot more shots than the Leafs and Devils, making Kuemper work more. This season the Caps have surrendered 1,257 shots. Some of those against Kuemper, some against Lindgren, but as a whole, that’s how many shots the team has given up.

The Maple Leafs have given up a total of 1,126 shots and the Devils have allowed 1,072.

To be a little fair here, the Capitals at the time of writing this have played in 53 games, the Leafs have played in 52 and the Devils have played in just 49. Obviously, more games to let up more shots.

The Capitals have also let up more scoring chances than both New Jersey and Toronto. The Caps have let up 1,187 scoring chances this season. The Leafs have let up 1,137 chances and the Devils the best of the three at 1,059.

The Devils are the second best team in the NHL at allowing high danger chances. So far this season they have allowed just 409 high danger attempts. The Leafs and the Capitals are nearly the same, more towards the middle of the pack. The Leafs have allowed 484 and the Caps have let up 488.

So which goalies are better when needed most? When the defense breaks down, do you make a save? That is basically the job of the goalie isn’t it? Save the easy shots, or the shots that shouldn’t go in thanks to your defense playing well. Bail out your team when they need you to. What is the high danger save percentage of these guys?

For all situations, 5v5, power play and shorthanded, Ilya Samsonov leads the entire NHL in high danger save percentage. His number currently sits at .880%. The next of the three guys we’re talking about is Vanecek. His high danger save percentage is at .824%, which is 24th in the NHL among goalies who have played 1,000 or more minutes this season. Kuemper is not too far away from Vanecek, but still below him at 29th with a high danger save percentage of .813%.

Has Kuemper been worth his big time signing? It’s still tough to say in my opinion. Kuemper has been good, he’s been pretty consistent. That’s something that was not the case in previous years in D.C.

I think you have to consider all things though. Kuemper is older, he is more expensive, and his numbers this season are similar to the other guys the Capitals gave up on. The Capitals are also a worse defensive team than the other two teams making his job harder than the others technically.

That also begs a question. Why not keep one of the young goalies at a smaller price and fix the defense on the Capitals? Why go get a higher priced goalie who has to play behind the same defense that can struggle? The young guys the Caps gave up on are proving behind some good defenses they can perform well.

It’s easy in hindsight to say what this team should have done, what that team should have done, what we all should have done in any given situation. It’s harder to tell in the moment, and it’s even harder with the current hand you’re dealt, the Capitals having some rough hands to fight through.

I am also not sure we can tell if Kuemper’s big signing would be worth it based on stats alone. Some of it might come down to team performance. If the Capitals make a long run in the playoffs and he is one of the reasons then you can slap a big ole duh on everyone’s forehead and say of course it was worth it. If the run is less impressive, like yet another first round exit would it still be worth it?

What if the Capitals end up missing the playoffs altogether? Which is a very real possibility. Was it worth getting a higher priced goalie rather than sticking with one of or both of your young guys?

Darcy Kuemper has been good. I don’t think you can argue that. Has he been worth it? That I think is still TBD.