We've talked about luck here before, and how you need luck to win championships, or just make long runs in the playoffs. There have been great teams in all sports that did not have long runs, and did not win championships, and luck had something to do with some of them. Not all, but some.
There have also been teams, while great, had luck. Think back to this past football season. While they didn't end up winning the Super Bowl, think of all the times the Kansas City Chiefs won games by the skin of their teeth.
In sports, and in life overall, you need some luck. The Washington Capitals might be getting some of that this season.
The Capitals are a great team. I have said for a long time now, I'm not sure how you beat this team. They might not be absolutely great at one thing, but they are really good at most things. They can score, they can defend well, they have good goaltending, they're big, pretty physical, they can skate pretty well, they can hold on to leads, they can come from behind. I don't know how you go about facing this Capitals team and hope to beat them four times in about a two week span in the postseason.
On top of being a great team they might be getting lucky
One lucky thing that can happen to teams that win in the playoffs is who you play and potentially when you play them. I think the Capitals are a terrific example of who you play, when, being a major factor. Montreal in 2010. Wrong team, wrong goalie, wrong time. Pittsburgh in 2016 and 2017. Great Caps teams, played the wrong team twice in the wrong years.
But are things going in the Capitals favor this season? Look around. Who should the Capitals be nervous about? Which teams, especially in the Capitals division worries you? Probably not many. Some of that I think is coming down to luck.
I want to point this out before this comes back to bite me in April or early May. Better teams have lost to worse teams before. One of the best regular season teams ever in Tampa Bay got swept in the first round by the bottom seeded Blue Jackets. It's happened before, it will happen again. Maybe it happens to the Capitals this year, who knows.
One team that I think that has been hit by bad luck is the New Jersey Devils. The Caps and Devils had some fun games this season. They both won two games, The Caps scored 17 goals in those games, the Devils scored 18. Over four goals a game for both sides.
But here we are, in mid to late March and the Devils have a couple of big problems. Jack Hughes is out for the year. Dougie Hamilton is out for the regular season, his status for the playoffs is uncertain. That's a pretty good team who is suddenly missing two massive pieces. Unlucky for them, lucky for the teams who might need to face them in a playoff series in a few weeks.
We can stay in that area of the country if you'd like. The New York Rangers are not having a good season. The team that knocked the Caps out of the playoffs last season. A team that had 110, 107 and 114 points in their last three seasons. A team that went to the conference finals two times the last three seasons. They're having a down year the same time Washington is having a terrific season. I'd say that's fairly lucky. One potential hurdle that might not be hard to clear at all.
As a fan of the Capitals, do the New York Islanders concern you?
How about the Columbus Blue Jackets? They have played the Caps twice this season and have been outscored 9-3. Washington is much better than they are.
Unless you a little weird like me and are scared of the whole "The Blue Jackets are playing for something bigger" kind of mindset, and they would be major underdogs in that series. For that reason they do kind of worry me. But that might be something I need to simply work through.
Pennsylvania is irrelevant. Right when you think the Penguins might make a run they blow it with a bad result or bad run of results. The Flyers aren't ready yet.
Before we talk about the tougher matchups lets stick to the wild card teams in the Atlantic Division. You nervous about the Senators? Maybe. They've gone on a run since the start of March. They've won seven games and lost only two. One of those losses was to the Capitals in a shootout. It's also not like they are beating world beaters either. Wins over SJ, CHI, NYR (and their struggles), DET, PHI, BOS and a struggling right now Maple Leafs. They also lost to the Canadiens in their most recent game. Tough team? Maybe. But I'm not worried about them yet.
Montreal is a little bit the same as Ottawa. A team trying to take a step up, but not really there yet. They've played the Caps three times, Washington is 2-0-1 against them.
You scared of the Red Wings? Well, Washington has smoked them twice in the past couple of weeks. At a time where Detroit should be the most desperate and therefore the hardest time to beat them, the Caps haven't had that many issues against them.
Now we can finally talk about teams that could give Washington a run. But these teams still have plenty of questions.
Carolina is a tricky team. The Caps are 1-1 against them this season. The first game was a 4-2 loss way back on November 3rd. The other game was a 3-1 win right before Christmas. It's been a while. They'll play two more times this season, April 2nd and 10th. Those could be telling games on how these teams stack up against each other.
That being said, it's a Hurricanes team that doesn't have a ton of playoff success. They have been a tough team to play against for sure, but they have their flaws. If they were to face the Capitals in a playoff series I'm picking Washington and not thinking twice about it. But it's still a team to pay attention to.
Toronto is also a team to pay attention to. But like the Hurricanes, where is their playoff success? Back the Leafs into the tiniest corner and they might (or probably will) fold. I think the Caps can easily back them into a corner.
Now we go to the state of Florida, and that might be the Capitals toughest challenge.
First it's the Lightning. Tampa, at least to me, is quietly having a really nice season. It doesn't seem like you hear a lot about them, and I looked up and they are 2nd in their division and just two points from the top.
Tampa is a really tough team to judge for a couple of reasons. They were dominant just a couple of seasons ago. Winning back to back Cups, getting to three straight Finals. But that takes a toll on a team. People want to get paid. Teams get torn apart. That's what kind of happened to them. It's a very different team that went on those runs. How will this team do? No one really knows.
The Bolts are a team to think about. But it's not a team to necessarily worry about like you used to, especially if you're a top team like the Caps this season.
Now we go to the big bad monster of the Eastern Conference, the Florida Panthers. The back to back conference champions and current defending Stanley Cup Champions. If you're anyone in the east, or league, this is probably the team to be afraid of.
But...again, there's questions here.
One, we can start here, the Caps have played them twice this season, both games Washington won. They outscored Florida 10-4 in those games.
Like New Jersey, Florida also has lineup questions. Matthew Tkachuk got injured in the 4 Nations tournament. He's seemingly out for the season and maybe into the playoffs. If he comes back what kind of player will he be?
Aaron Ekblad has been suspend for a long period of time. He'll be gone into the playoffs., That won't mean much for the Capitals, they won't play Florida in the first round. But it could hurt them against whoever they play. Making it harder to even get out of the first round.
They also made a big splash at the trade deadline getting Brad Marchand from the Bruins. An awesome add. Someone who fits their team perfectly, I think anyways. But that doesn't mean it will work.
I'm always skeptical of teams who make big in season acquisitions. But even more so when it comes at the trade deadline. You have very little time to get settled into your new city and new team before the biggest games start. To make things worse for Marchand, he's injured too. He hasn't played since March 1st and he's still yet to play for his new team, giving him and his teammates even less time to mesh.
Florida is a great team. Even without the guys we just mentioned. But they do have some pretty big questions that need answered.
We'll see how they do against Washington very soon. They play each other on Saturday the 22nd. Again, they won't have at least two of the three big names they're missing. We'll see how they do.
Luck. You need it in life. In a season where seemingly everyone in the east has a major flaw or a big question or two that needs answered, it doesn't seem like the Capitals have either of those.
There's a lot of hockey to be played. It's not a game or sport played on paper or in our minds. There might be a team that throws something at Washington that they simply don't have an answer for. Or, maybe the luck that I think this team has had runs out. Maybe the injury big bites them hard late?
We still have nearly 15 games to go until the playoffs start.
But to this point, I think things have fallen for the Capitals beautifully. Could this be a nearly perfect season in Washington? A team that is built insanely well. And teams around them getting hit by injuries. Or underperforming. Or something happening that a team will have to fight through that the Capitals might not have to.
I really do think the Capitals might be getting lucky and getting lucky in the perfect season. We'll see if it continues.