The Pros And Cons Of The Boom Or Bust Pierre-Luc Dubois Trade
Mixed feelings about this one
Darcy Kuemper
Con - Did They Add Another?
I believe there is a saying in life that goes something like this, "Don't solve a problem by creating another". That's a pretty easy tip to understand. If you have a giant hole that you need to fill in don't dig another hole to fill it in. Because guess what? You filled in the hole, but then you turn around and there is another one.
Yes, the Capitals got rid of one problem they had by trading a higher priced goalie who was not living up to his contract. But they traded for someone who is even more high paid, who is also badly not living up to his contract that he just signed.
Dubois can be a fantastic player. But he hasn't been lately. After getting traded from the Winnipeg Jets to the Kings last off-season he signed an 8 year, $65 million contract. Here we are, a week away from that being one year ago and he has already been traded. The Kings were fed up after one year.
It's easy to see why. When you sign someone to a big contract and the very next season you see that same guy playing on the fourth line at multiple points of the season. It's easy to understand when you see that same guy putting up career low numbers, at least in a full season, scoring 16 goals and 40 points playing in all 82 games for his new team. His previous career low being 18 goals and 49 points in 19-20 (a fullish season stopped by a pandemic of course) when he was with the Columbus Blue Jackets.
Yes, the Capitals solved one problem they had. But they might have added an even bigger one in the process.
But...
Pro - If This Works
Wow this could be an absolute steal, highway robbery, put him in hockey prison for life for crimes against fellow GM's, for Brian MacLellan.
If this works the Capitals acquired a top six center, a guy capable of potting nearly thirty goals and sixty plus points and they didn't really have to give anything up. They were able to add a 25-year-old, turning twenty-six in just a few days, happy birthday to the newest Capital, with an eight year deal already signed. Dubois isn't a free agent until the summer of 2031.
It's even kind of hard to say anything else about this. What else can you say? If this works this could be the best move by MacLellan during his time in control of the Capitals. You traded away a problem contract for a top six center. I have to imagine GM's dream about that kind of move, and he just pulled it off.
Con - Does This Block The Young Guys?
I have been saying for months now that the Capitals should not be buyers because they have young, talented, promising guys who deserve a shot. I understand not wanting to give a young guy a job. But at some point you need to give young guys the job. The only way to know if they will work out or not is if they get the chance. Does this move block the young guys once again?
On paper, if this move works out like we all hope the top two centers are Dylan Strome and Dubois. You would think that makes Connor McMichael 3C and then Nic Dowd being the fourth line anchor. Where does Hendrix Lapierre go? Well, I guess the wing obviously. Or potentially flip McMichael and him and see who is the better center going forward?
If this move for Dubois works does this make one of the two young centers expendable? Are they trade chips? If we have Strome, PLD and whoever cements himself as the third line center does the other become a trade candidate for whatever bigger names becomes available at the trade deadline next season?
If one of those guys goes to the wing does that block other guys because Dubois is blocking them from playing center? Where does Miroshnichenko go? What about other guys like maybe Ethan Frank or maybe a Pierrick Dube, and in the future an Andrew Cristall and Ryan Leonard?
The Capitals already have Ovechkin, Wilson, Milano, Protas, and maybe Oshie, then one of the young centers playing wing then hopefully Miroshnichenko. You're already out of space for young guys who deserve a shot. Then god forbid this move for Dubois doesn't wok and you have a $8.5 million dollar guy blocking room for nothing.
It's great having young guys. Ovechkin won't be around forever, Oshie might be gone very soon, these guys will hopefully take thir spot in the future. But you should give them a shot before they leave to know if they can fill that hole.
The young guys need a chance. Hopefully getting someone doesn't block them.
Con - Did The Capitals Just Get Another Kuznetsov
The Capitals had a high priced, underperforming center for years. For some reason, they did nothing about it. Evgeny Kuznetsov did not want to be in Washington anymore, it seemed the Capitals were ready to move on, and nothing changed. Until you could argue it was too late and the Caps were forced to trade him for basically nothing.
Lets hope they didn't trade for another version of that. Dubois does not have a great track record coming to D.C. He forced his way out of Columbus in a very ugly way. He got himself out of Winnipeg. Got himself somewhere that he apparently saw himself playing for years and years and then instantly got himself on the bad side of that team.
What if things don't go well in Washington? We talked about "if's" here a few days ago. What if Ovechkin takes a step back? What happens if the young guys don't step up? What if the Lindgren isn't as great as he was last season? What if the Capitals just are simply not that good? Combining that with other teams maybe taking a step up, like the New Jersey Devils.
What is Dubois' attitude towards this move and this team going forward? All of those things could easily happen. Ovechkin is old, the young guys have proven nothing and Charlie Lindgren hasn't proven he is a long term option. That's not to say the opposite won't happen as well. Ovi could score 50, the young guys could all turn into key players and Lindgren could be a Vezina candidate. Those are just as likley to happen as not.
If the good happens I'm guessing Dubois will be fine here. If the bad happens do the Caps have a disgruntled $8.5 million player who again underperforms and they have trouble trading him until they have to trade him for nothing. That brings back bad memories.
I would hate the for the Capitals and the fans to finally, finally move on from a player who caused them trouble for so many years just to trade for another version of that.
Hopefully Pierre realizes that he is getting a pretty ugly reputation around the league and among fans. He clearly has the talent to be a very good NHL player. Now it's simply up to him to be a consistent player for years. Maybe it finally clicks for him in Washington, but until he proves it I'm skeptical about him being a long term success for the Caps.
Pro - It's Easily Worth The Risk
I don't know if this is a pro as much as it is a summary. I think there are actually more cons to this deal than pros. That being said the pros outweigh the cons. If this deal works out it could be a massive, gargantuan deal for the Capitals and their future. I know I've already said it a bunch of times but it's worth repeating, the Capitals got a potential key player on a long term deal and they didn't have to give up anything.
Even if this deal fails miserably are there going to be any Capitals fans out there that says, "AND WE GAVE UP KUEMPER!" again, no disrespect to Darcy. He sounds like a terrific person, which is way more important than being a good hockey player. Even if this deal ends bad for the Caps, I doubt anyone is going to say that.
This feels like swinging for a home run or a grand slam in the first inning. If you connect, bam, its 4-0 early, setting you up for a good game. If you miss, we got the rest of the game to get it back.
The salary cap should be going up going forward. The Capitals have some big salaries likely coming off the books in the next few years. Ovechkin and his $9.5 is likely gone in the next couple of years. Backstrom is probably on LTIR and his $9.2 hit is gone after next season. Oshie only has one year left at $5.75 million. The Capitals are going to have room.
It still won't be fun to have an underperforming player at $8.5 million if this doesn't work out, but I'm not sure it will hurt as much as it might for others.
Bottom line, this could be huge for the Washington Capitals. If it doesn't work, it was easily worth the risk.
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