Washington Capitals: Alex Ovechkin’s Twilight in Sight

Potential Contract

Alex Ovechkin is finishing off a 13 year contract worth a total of $124 million, good for an average annual value (AAV) of approximately $9.5 million. Most anyone following his career would say this has been more a team friendly contract than expected at the time of signing. Now comes the difficult task of Brian MacLellan figuring out how to reward Ovechkin while not constraining the salary cap situation that is looming. So what AAV should the Washington Capitals target to keep Alex and for how long?

For comparison sake, currently, Alex has a career point total of 1278 with 67 points last year with only 68 games played. To really address what the money could realistically look like compared to recent contracts made by similarly aged players and similar production, let’s tack on an additional 50 points for next season. This aligns with his age and point production in the previous season with 48 games (Lockout shortened season of 48 games, 56 points produced.), which is the minimum being proposed for the upcoming season. This would add up to a point total of 1328 points at the time of signing the new deal if he waits until the end of next season. These restrictions of age 35-36 and points produced of 1300 +/- 100 will be hard to compare given the other facets of Alex’s game but we will give it a crack.

First one that comes to mind is when Jarome Iginla signing with the Boston Bruins, at the time 36 years old and with career point total of 1106.  His AAV for the contract was $6 million, where he gave the team 61 points and would follow that season up with another contract with Colorado for just AAV $700,000 less. He would continue to produce and be a pivotal part of the teams construction. Now from a point production stance this is not a bad comparison, but at this juncture in Iginla’s career, he was no longer the captain of his team and was not looked to as a physical presence the same way Alex is for the Capitals.

The last comparable to this timing of the contract and production would be Patrick Marleau when he signed with the Toronto Maple Leafs, at the time he was slightly older than Alex will be at 37 years old. Patrick at this point had accounted for 1082 points and was rewarded with an AAV of $6.25 million. Much like Iginla, Marleau was not the key piece to the puzzle of the Maple Leafs but merely a complementary piece to the puzzle. Again like Iginla, Marleau was not being asked to much other than to show the younger players on the team how to carry themselves as a true scoring threat. He wound up with 47 points for Toronto while playing in all 82 games.

It is rumored that Alex is said to be looking for more than $10 million AAV on his next extension with the Washington Capitals. This would actually be a good starting point for the team given what Alex means to the team, could they convince Alex his best chances to stay competitive while not increasing their cap issues further by offering him a base AAV of $10 million? This is the best the team can probably offer without majorly subtracting from their current roster construction.

Considering how important it is for Ovechkin to win another Stanley Cup Championship, he will most likely take a deal with this as the base value. When you combine his scoring prowess, with his physicality and true leadership that has been driving this team for the last 10 years; this is a no brainer if the team can get him to agree to an AAV of $10 million.

Realistically how long should both Alex and the Washington Capitals look to keep this arrangement? Given the nature Alex plays, and the current output we have come to expect and see year to year, he will most likely be playing at a high level for another three seasons with no issue. Since he mentions the possibility of playing up to 5 years, it might take the last few seasons to be signed as player and team options with potential cap relief if he chooses to walk away and finish his last few years with Dynamo Moscow.

Without being an expert in the contract constraints in the NHL, the best possible contract of 5 years for $50 million with the last two being options for both the player and the team may be the best the Washington Capitals can hope for. What would this mean for Alex’s chase for greatness?