Should The Capitals Try To Trade For John Gibson?

The Washington Capitals need goaltending help. For the past two seasons they have gone young and homegrown in Ilya Samsonov and Vitek Vanecek. The results in those two years has been a bit of a mixed bag.

Vanecek has been mostly good. Nothing special, but not bad at all. Since he was basically forced to be NHL ready at the start of the shortened 2021 season, Vanecek has played in 79 games. In those games he has a 2.68 GAA and a .908 save percentage. That’s fine. Nothing more.

Samsonov has not been good in the past two seasons. In the last two years among goalies who have played 2,000 minutes or more Samsonov ranks 52nd out of 55 goalies in save percentage at .898%. His GAA of 2.92 ranks 39th out of those 55 goalies.

To be fair, Vanecek ranks 30th and 21st in both of those stats.

Numbers aside, neither of these guys has been able to get the job done in the playoffs for the Capitals. Vanecek has gotten the chance to start in both seasons but got injured in the 2021 playoffs and got replaced this past season. In replacement duty Samsonov has been up and down. Just like his entire career to this point.

Long story short, the Capitals need a goalie. Going forward with these two probably shouldn’t be the answer. Fool me once shame on you. Fool me twice shame on me. Fool me three times? I don’t know what the saying is, but in the sports world it probably ends with “You’re fired”. This tandem has had two chances. They didn’t get the job done. This Capitals team still has Cup aspirations. They need a goalie to help them get there.

A rumor I have seen that shocked me is Anaheim Ducks goaltender John Gibson could possibly be traded this coming offseason. While not a rumor, there has been at least one big time writer who has mentioned that if Gibson is in fact moved perhaps the Capitals could be a landing spot for the 28-year-old netminder.

Ducks writer Eric Stephens also wrote about Gibson on The Athletic. I won’t spoil anything he says on his article and a subscription to The Athletic is needed to read his thoughts (which I would highly recommend) but he also mentions the Capitals as a potential landing spot for Gibson.

At least two things come to mind when discussing a deal for Gibson.

The first is the salary cap. The Capitals need to rebuild their team a little bit. Or a more appropriate word may be retool. Both the forward and defensive group could use a move or two. There is some money that needs to be dished out. The team has about $9 million in cap space this offseason. If you’re going to make moves for skaters there is a good chunk of that gone.

Gibson has a cap hit of $6.4 for the next five seasons. His current contract runs out after the 2026-27 season. Honestly, that isn’t bad for a sure fire starter in the NHL. That being said, if the Capitals have to spend to upgrade their skaters a little bit does that leave enough room for Gibson? Probably not.

The other thing to note is Gibson does not have great stats over the past three seasons. His last three GAA’s are 3.00, 2.98 and 3.19. His last three save percentages are .903, .904 and .903.

Among goalies that have played 4,500 minutes or more over the past three seasons his .904 save percentage ranks 31st out of 38 goalies. To compare, Samsonov is at .902 over the same amount of time.

Gibson’s Goals Saved Above Average also is not very good over the past few seasons. His is -18.86, 33rd out of the 38 goalies. That’s worse that Samsonov’s -13.83.

However, we need to remember that the Ducks have not been a good team for some time now. While the past couple of numbers have not been flattering for Gibson he does have some numbers that still prove he has all-star goalie potential.

His high danger save percentage is .813 over the past three seasons. That ranks 23rd out of 38. Samsonov ranks 37th of 38 at .785%.

Gibson has also seen a ton of high danger shots over that time as well. Only two goalies have seen more high danger shots against since the start of 2019. Those guys being Connor Hellebuyck (1,534) and Andrei Vasilevskiy (1,273). Gibson has faced 1,238 high danger shots. Again, to compare to a Capitals goalie, Samsonov has faced the second fewest HD shots since 2019 at 629.

We should note that Samsonov played about 4,800 minutes to Gibson’s 8,200 minutes.

Gibson’s High Danger Goals Saved Above Average is a -1.53, pretty good considering the amount of shots he sees. Once again, Samsonov ranked towards the bottom at 37th with a -17.90. Just above former Capitals goalie Braden Holtby at -22.56 if you were curious.

Gibson can still be a star in net. Even in these down years he has made the All-Star game twice in 2019 and 2022. The question is, is he still as good as he was when the Ducks were a very good team?

Here are Gibson’s numbers from 2015-18.

GAA – 2.26

SV% – .924%

GSAA – 45.63

HDSV% – .831%

HDGSAA – 1.40

Gibson has proven in the past that he is a very good goalie. When you put a good team in front of him he can be one of the best in the league. He is 28-years-old, 29 before next season starts.

The Capitals need help in goal. If the Capitals wanted to trade for Gibson and Anaheim wanted a goalie back, great news! We got two younger goalies who have proven they are NHL worthy and could grow. Pick one! Want them both? Maybe you do that and sign a backup in free agency.

Which brings up our next point. Would it be better to just go into the free agent market instead? Who is out there? You do have some options, but they are also a little limited.

You likely will not get Marc-Andre Fleury. He has stated that playing for the Capitals after being a Penguin so long would be weird. Who else? Jack Campbell?

Campbell would probably be my number one target to be honest. After him, when you look at the goalie market who else would you to try to get? If you’re looking for a good backup there are probably plenty of options. Are the Capitals looking for a backup? It seems to me they are looking for an answer. Someone who can come in and compete to start. Looking at the market there are not a ton of options there. Two, maybe three guys at best. Those guys are thirty or older and thanks to being free agents might be more expensive, and one who will likely not sign with you.

I am not a big fan of playing the fantasy game. I do not enjoy throwing out trade proposals pretending like I would know what it could or should take to land a player. I don’t know what it would take to acquire a player like John Gibson.

But nonetheless, it is interesting that his name has popped up in some trade rumors. The Washington Capitals need help in the goalie department. There is not a ton of hope in the free agency market.

If the Capitals could make a trade for an all-star goalie in Gibson would you do it?