A Rough November Schedule Means A Good Start Is Vital For The Capitals

There is an old saying about the start of sports league seasons that I like to keep an eye on. This saying is simple, “you cannot make the playoffs in October and November, but you can sure as heck miss them then”. Simple, easy to understand, and very true.

I think of two teams in recent NHL history who could tell you all about this. In 2015-16 the Columbus Blue Jackets had some promise going into the season. That off-season they had acquired Brandon Saad from the Chicago Blackhawks. While not the most exciting name these days he had some promise on him being a part of Blackhawks Cup winning teams. They also added Seth Jones in season, but by time they added him in was pretty much too late.

They started that season by going on a seven game losing streak. In the month of October that year they went 2-10. The rest of the season they went 35-30-8.

Even the season before that the Blue Jackets finished the season 15-1-1. The problem was they went 4-6 in October and 2-9-2 in November. Thanks to that bad start they missed the playoffs.

We can also go back to just last season. While the New York Islanders may have some built in excuses, like starting the season on a massive road trip, in their first two months they went 5-11-2 including 2-8 in November. They still were not great for the remainder of the season, but they were over .500. A better start could have made the playoff race out east a little more interesting. But that awful November killed them.

A good start is very important and you will almost hear every player and coach tell you that during camps and pre-season.

The Washington Capitals will need a good start this season. Their October schedule looks good. They start the season on a rough back to back vs Boston then heading up to Toronto. Would anyone be shocked if the Capitals dropped both of those games?  Those are good teams. You’d want to win vs the Bruins to open the season but that game is no gimme.

After that they play eight more games in the month and half of them are against teams that missed the playoffs last season.

After the first two tough games they play Montreal at home, Vancouver at home,  Ottawa on the road, LA at home, New Jersey, Dallas, Nashville and then Carolina to finish the month.

There are no easy games in the NHL, or really any professional sport. BUT, looking at that schedule and seeing some of the teams on it, knowing what they are trying to do this season and what the Capitals aspirations are, I think you could give the Capitals seven wins in the opening month. Give them Boston, Montreal, Vancouver, Ottawa, LA, NJ, and either Dallas or Nashville.

Seven wins out of ten would be a very good start and set the Capitals up for success for the rest of the calendar.

Shall we do some doomsday thinking? Lets do some doomsday thinking. Lets say the Capitals stumble out of the gate, for any reason. The new players struggle to find their place or success. The aging stars start slow, or worse they get banged up early. The team misses the big pieces of Nicklas Backstrom and Tom Wilson early. Whatever the case, lets say the start slow.

Say they do drop games vs Boston and Toronto to start. I still think they should get a win vs Montreal on the first Saturday of the season. They should probably beat Vancouver the following Monday as well. But say the up-and-coming Senators get the Capitals in Ottawa. Now Washington is 2-3. The LA Kings are a team on the up. What’s to say they don’t take another step up? Maybe they get the Capitals too, now they’re 2-4.

The Capitals have owned the Devils in recent years, even though they are also starting to look better, they are still potentially a ways off. That should be a win. 3-4 now. Dallas is a tough team, the Capitals seem to struggle there as well, that could easily be an L, now they’re 3-5. Nashville made the playoffs last season, they have a tough road rink and they have a goalie that can steal games night in and night out. That could easily be a loss as well, now 3-6.

Again, the Capitals then finish the month in Carolina, we all know how tough that team can be. Even if the Capitals start well that could easily be a loss. In this case it would be really bad, 3-7 start.

Now that would be bad enough. Then you have to consider my argument why I think an important start is potentially vital for this Capitals team. The November schedule is really tough.

The Capitals play 14 games in November. They start the month on a back to back, the end October in Carolina and then start November in Washington hosting the Golden Knights. They play a game every other night all the way up until the 19th. If my counting is right, going back to the end of October, that is 13 games in 24 nights.

To make that even worse the entire month of November it seems like the Capitals are not only playing good teams, they are playing Cup contenders.

After Vegas to start the month they then get Detroit, maybe an easier game, then Arizona. After that the Capitals have to run a little bit of a gauntlet. The next seven games are vs Edmonton, vs Pittsburgh, vs Tampa, at Tampa, at Florida, at St .Louis, then home for Colorado.

To sum up, conference finalist and Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl. Tough division rival and Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin. Back to back cup champions who nearly three-peated. The Presidents’ Trophy winners who knocked you out last season and just maybe got better this off-season. St. Louis, always seems to be a tough, hard to play against team for the past decade. Then after all of that you play a stacked Avalanche team who are the team that denied Tampa that three-peat.

They finish the month home for the Flyers, home for Calgary, another tough team, the day after Thanksgiving (early and odd 2pm eastern start), then the Devils the next night. They then fly to western Canada to start a western trip vs the Canucks.

If the Capitals struggle in November would it shock anybody? It really shouldn’t. That is not an insult to this Capitals team, that schedule is really rough. If anyone had a rough time during that stretch I don’t think anyone would blame them.

The Capitals are a good team in my eyes. I am not going to try to guess what they could or should go in November. They may come out of that month on top of the world with a great record. That could just as easily happen as the doomsday situation we’ve been talking about.

With the lighter and potentially easier schedule in October I think it is extremely important the Capitals get off to a good start. Start well to give yourselves the opportunity to stumble just a little bit in the tough parts of the schedule.

You cannot make the playoffs in October and November, but you can miss them. If the Capitals have a slow start to the season they could put themselves in an early hole in a really challenging division and conference.