The Washington Capitals Last Dance Starts Now

All good things must come to an end. For the Washington Capitals that means the most successful era in franchise history. Whether it ends this season thanks to a disappointing season or in two, three or four years, whenever Alex Ovechkin retires, that remains to be seen.

There does seem to be a little bit of a sense of finality to this season. It feels like no matter what the result of this season is there will probably be some big changes the next offseason. In my eyes there are two very real possibilities the way this coming season ends. The good way, the Capitals win the Stanley Cup and everyone is celebrating in June/July and beyond. The other is another early exit in the playoffs or missing the playoffs altogether.

Either of those results could easily usher in some change. If you look at it the good way, meaning the Capitals win the Cup they could look at it like this. We have gotten two Stanley Cups out of this group, that’s more than a lot of other great teams can say, it’s time to “move on” and start thinking about the future.

Then there is the bad way. If the Capitals lose early in the playoffs, or even miss them completely, which seems like an extreme assumption, why would you try to bring the majority of this team back? Why would you bring back the majority of a team that since winning the Cup in 2018 has had four or possibly five incredibly bad playoff performances. Count me surprised there hasn’t been some kind of bigger change after three let alone four or five.

There probably is a middle ground here. If the Caps lose a tough eastern conference final maybe there is some room to try to run it back and bring back as many pieces as possible, but as of right now I wouldn’t predict that happening.

The biggest reason this feels like a last dance season is the amount of contracts the team has expiring at the end of the year. To start next season the Capitals have ten forwards signed and one, just ONE defenseman.

There are some potential big names that could be tricky to sign, but the biggest is by far Dmitry Orlov. Do the Capitals try to re-sign him? The easy answer is yes. In my opinion he is the most important Capitals blue liner, brining solid defense and even chipping in offense here and there.

On the other hand he will be 32 to start next season. Will he accept a shorter deal? I don’t know if a longer deal is the smartest thing for Washington. I would assume some team out there would overpay for a Dmitry Orlov. Some team could give Orlov term and amount, is it smart for the Capitals to do that?

If they do give Orlov a bigger deal that is a big chunk of the salary cap gone. According to CapFriendly the Caps have an estimated $21 million in space next season. You would have to assume an Orlov deal wouldn’t be cheaper than his current $5.1 cap hit.

Both Dylan Strome and Martin Fehervary are RFA’s. Both of those young guys have some promise. What if both of them live up to that promise? They will need new deals. If they do have good seasons they will also take up a good chunk of the available cap space.

I am not a big fan of trying to guess what players will get with their next contracts but just signing three players for next season could take up a good part of the cap space and they would have just three defensemen signed with ten forwards?

Something I think you have to think about is not just this team, but the teams around you. Teams around the Capitals are getting younger and those younger teams are coming. The New York Rangers have potentially or likely already surpassed you. The Devils seem to be on their way. In the other eastern division the Senators are coming, the Red Wings are coming and we haven’t yet talked about the the Lightning, Panthers and Leafs who don’t seem likely to go anywhere anytime soon. Not to mention the Hurricanes in your own division who don’t seem to want to go down either.

Would it be the wise move, if the Capitals don’t win this season, to continue with this group? Knowing other teams have passed you by. Knowing there are up and coming teams getting ready to speed past you. Or would it be smarter to let some guys walk, maybe trade another guy or two and let the prospects take over.

Keep the Ovechkin’s and the Backstrom’s and Carlson’s if they want to stay, and surround them with McMichael, Lapierre, Protas, Alexeyev, and whoever else can take a step up.

At the end of the day, to me it really is as simple as what we said before. If they win the Cup, you say thank you and it’s time to move on with the younger promising pieces we have. If they lose early I have no idea why you would continue to try to beat your head against the brick wall with this group. That would be five straight bad finishes. Cut some of the bigger guys, which you can now do thanks to all the expiring deals and give the young guys a lot more time.

I do feel like this is an overused term now, but this Capitals team does have a little bit of a last dance feel to it. If they win, sell high, get rid of some of the important pieces and fast forward the rebuild, or retool becoming a more and more popular phrase. If they lose, you have expiring deals. The excuse to tear this thing down is right there.

It should be an interesting season in D.C. The urgency should be there. This could be the very last shot they have to win as a group. We’ll see if they can make a run.