The Washington Capitals are coming off a tremendous regular season. They went 51-22-9, that being good for 111 points. They ran away with their division, winning the metro by twelve points. Twelve points being the highest gap between first and second in a division this year. Winnipeg, who won the President's Trophy, won their division by ten points
The Caps were also the best team in the entire eastern conference. They were just able to outlast a late charge from the Toronto Maple Leafs. Toronto went 9-1 in their final ten games, and ended the year on a five game winning streak. It was still not good enough, they finished with 108 points.
The record and team is what everyone will focus on to determine whether a season is good or not. But look at what happened this season. It was a season of great things, seemingly left and right.
Lets get the obvious thing out of the way. The Ovechkin goal scoring chase. Ovechkin broke Wayne Gretzky's goal scoring record. Not only did he do it, he did it playing only 65 games after getting his first major injury that forced him to miss a good chunk of time. This was the story of the year. Not just with the Capitals, but probably the entire league.
You had new guys get traded to the Caps and man did those players play well.
Jakob Chychrun was outstanding this year. He had a career year, all over the place. He scored 20 goals, a career best. 27 assists, tying a career best, and 47 points, obviously, a career best. He was also a +17 this year, the highest he has ever finished a year, Flawed stat? Yes, but it's worth keeping an eye on sometimes.
Chychrun also scored 6 game winning goals this season. He had ten total GWG's in his career when the season started.
I could go on and on about things and players that stood out. Dubois, Thompson, McMichael, Protas. I just named seven things that went incredibly well this past season. Can that happen again?
Probably not. Odds are, no.
I say this a lot, if you've followed me you'll remember me saying this. To have a successful season, a lot of the time your maybes have to turn into yes's. That's what happened this year to Washington.
Can Ovechkin stay healthy? No. Can he stay insanely productive at age 39? Yes. Can Charlie Lindgren do what he did last season again? No. Can Logan Thompson help? Yes. Will Dubois play well in D.C.? Yes. Was the Chychrun move a good move? Yes. To make this shorter and not name more individuals, can the young guys step up? Yes.
A lot of things that had questions this year that could have gone wrong went very right for the Caps. That Ovechkin injury, could have been worse. The PLD gamble could have failed. Trading for Chychrun on an expiring contract, could have backfired. The young guys could have stayed status quo. One of the goalies did take a step back, thank goodness one played at a Vezina quality for about half the season.
For the Capitals to get better next season and not "regress" you will probably need all of those maybe's to turn into a yes, again. I think that's unlikely.
How much longer can Ovechkin fight off father time with his hockey stick? Do I harp on this? Probably. But it's going to happen at some points. Either in Washington or in Russia when he goes back to finish his pro career.
How many Capitals had career years this past season? Off the top of my head seven guys had career years. Thompson, Strome, Wilson, Dubois, Chychrun, McMichael and Protas.
For the Capitals to not regress next season Ovechkin can't take a step back next year. All of the other guys will need to do what they did this season, again. That's going to be hard to do. It doesn't mean they can't, but it's not something we should expect at the same time. Not to mention injuries can happen.
Lets look at the young guys, McMichael and Protas. Congratulations, you have career years. Now do it again. That what makes you a very good or great NHL player. Doing it over and over again for years.
Every team has gone through this before. A young guy has a good season, then either plateaus or regresses the next few. We can't bank on these guys doing what they did this season again next year. They haven't proven it yet.
Remember Andre Burakovsky? Jakub Vrana? Both had terrific seasons as young players. We, or at least I, thought they would be Capitals for a long time. Potentially key players for years. They never were able to take that next step, for various reasons.
If guys on this team do take a step back next season can the prospects fill in? Maybe. But you should never really have too much expectations on a prospect. Maybe unless they're first overall.
I thought Ryan Leonard looked pretty good and comfortable in the NHL this season. That being said, he played in 17 games in the regular season and playoffs, he had two total points, one of those being in a manned net. He hasn't scored on an NHL goalie yet.
I think Leonard is one of the most exciting prospects the NHL has right now. But I can't come out and say he'll help next season. I don't know that. I hope he does because I think he could be a really exciting and fun player to watch. But that's it.
Miroshnichenko is another young guy to watch who is trying to break into the NHL full time. Is he an NHLer, or an impactful one? Can't bank on that either. That is just more hope.
Finally, I think this could be the big one. Why should the Capitals care as much next season? For a lot of reasons, individually, and as a team.
We see this all the time, especially in hockey, and in other sports as well. A team proves themselves, makes themselves known one season. Then takes a small step back the next season. Not because they just simply get worse, but because they know it's a long season. They know they will be judged in April, May or June, not December or January. It's not that they don't try 100% every night, it's more or less just not showing everyone all the cards they hold, just yet. We'll do that in the playoffs.
I think that could happen next season for Washington. They won the east. They won their division easily. They have announced that they are "back" if you want to go that far. The reugalr season will not mean as much to Washington. It's time to show what you can do in the playoffs. Just get in. You see this happen all the time.
I don't think Tampa, Florida, Carolina, Dallas, Colorado, Edmonton, probably Vegas, I don't think they care if they win their own division. Get in. We'll take care of the rest later. We'll sacrifice five, six, seven, eight points just trying to figure some things out in the middle of the year. Instead of 112 points and a division win, we'll get 104, 105, be in second and be in a better place to beat you.
Individually there could be some step back too. Ovechkin doesn't have Gretzky in his crosshairs. Does he try to take it somewhat easier to be better for the team in the playoffs? Does Dubois do what he did in other cities and take steps back as the years go on? Harsh? Maybe, but it's been done multiple times. It's something you have to keep in the back of your mind. Chychrun had a career year in a contract year. It wouldn't be the first time you see a player take a small dip after getting paid.
Something else that I think needs to be pointed out. Teams in the metro division could get better too. Hopefully for them New Jersey stays a little healthier next season. That could be a team to take some points off the Caps. Do the Rangers have a bit of a rebound year? Does Columbus and Philadelphia take another step up? What the heck does Carolina look like? Pittsburgh...never mind.
Teams getting better in your own division will make it harder, obviously. That could happen as well.
I'm also not going to analyze things that haven't happened yet. Free agency, trades, etc. If the Capitals go out and sign Mitch Marner, I might change my tone. But even then you have to try to find your way on your new team. Your teammates have to learn how to play with you. It's still not guaranteed to make you a better regular season team when the goal is 111+ points.
The Capitals will likely regress next regular season. That doesn't have to be a bad thing at all. A regression next regular season, could see a progression next playoffs. Who knows.
To think they will get better in the regular season I think is a slightly unreasonable ask. It's hard to improve on 111 points. It's hard for guys to have career years in back to back years. Taking a small step back, regressing a little bit, should be expected.