Capitals: Is It Time To Panic?
Mandatory Credit: Chris Humphreys-USA TODAY Sports
Capitals fans have a lot to be encouraged about and a lot of things to be concerned about. But is it time to push the panic button?
The Washington Capitals, despite currently sitting in third place in the Metropolitan Division (which makes them a playoff team), have struggled quite a bit this season, especially when they out-shoot their opponents. The Capitals have only won 35.7% of the games in which they have out-shot their opponents, which ranks 22nd in the NHL. Meanwhile, the Capitals have done well while getting out-shot, winning 60.0% of those games (they’ve had five of them), which is fifth in the NHL. They’ve won four of their six games in which they have been out-Fenwicked by their opponents, while losing nine of their 14 games in which they out-Fenwicked their opponents.
This rash of horrible luck has driven many Capitals fans to the edge. To be fair, it’s quite understandable why Capitals fans have reacted in such
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a way. They were promised change when Trotz was hired, and while that change is evident in certain areas, that change hasn’t shown where it matters: in the standings. That’s extremely frustrating. What’s even more frustrating is that the Capitals are doing so many things right and they have struggled to get results that back that up. I firmly believe that if the Capitals keep doing those things right, and fix the tiny things that they aren’t doing right, that they will definitely be a playoff team.
So what are the Capitals doing right? They’re dominating puck possession and suppressing shots at even strength (52.96% FF% and 52.20% CF% in those situations, which are seventh and eighth in the NHL). In fact, in close situations, the Capitals are extremely good- their 53.93 ES FenClose% is fifth in the NHL. Capitals fans should be encouraged by that.
War On Ice has FenClose% measured from 2002-2003 to the present. In the eleven seasons that it has been measured (remember the lockout
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cost the NHL a full season), 55 teams have finished in the top five in ES FenClose%. Of those 55 teams, 50 of them made the playoffs (90.9%) and of the past six Stanley Cup Champions, four of them were in the top five during the regular season. Obviously, there are exceptions (the 2010-2011 Bruins and 2008-2009 Penguins). However, considering how wildly unpredictable hockey is, ES FenClose% is about as reliable as it gets as far as judging a team’s performance and it does a pretty good job of discerning how a team does when they need to be good. I said pretty good job because the Capitals must improve in one area that qualifies as a close situation: when they lead by one goal. When they lead by one goal, the Capitals own an ES Fenwick% of 45.52%, which is 19th in the NHL. As you can see below, that is something that Barry Trotz has struggled with at times.
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So how can Barry Trotz and the Capitals fix their strategy while leading by one goal? The problem is definitely not suppressing shots- the Capitals ES FenwickAgn60 while leading by one goal is the seventh lowest in the NHL. The issue is that the Capitals are struggling to create scoring opportunities while leading- their 31.48 ES FenwickFor60 while leading by one goal is second lowest in the NHL. I believe that’s an issue because Barry Trotz is still getting used to have completely different forwards than he had in Nashville. He was forced to play a certain way in Nashville because of his lack of forwards. Trotz is going to have to learn that he can be, and must be, a bit more bold with the Capitals. I think with his resume, he deserves more than a 20 game sample size with a new team learning a new system before Capitals fans start declaring he doesn’t know how to play with a lead.
Playing with a one goal lead is a very delicate and complicated situation in hockey. You want to protect the one goal lead, obviously, so you don’t want to play up in the offensive zone too much or else you’ll be inviting the other team to go on odd man rushes and breakaways, which can be detrimental when trying to protect a one goal lead. The last thing you want to do with a one goal lead is hand the other team easy shots on goal. However, as the Capitals have shown, you can’t just sit back and not take chances. The size of NHL hockey rinks plays a very large role in that. The Capitals have to find that healthy balance between protecting the lead and trying to extend it.
Part of that healthy balance includes using Mike Green more often (once he gets healthy of course), as his 9.39 FF% Rel (Relative FenwickFor%) is the highest FF% Rel on the Capitals. That means that the Capitals generate 9.39% more chances with Green on the ice than they do without him. Despite Green’s reputation for being horrible defensively, that’s not the case this year, as Green has a FenwickAgn60 of 32.258 while the Capitals lead by one goal.
There are things that Capitals fans should be encouraged by (puck possession numbers, better goaltending by Braden Holtby) and also things that they should be concerned about (how the Capitals play when they have a one goal lead). Overall, I think the things that I’m encouraged by outweigh the things that I’m concerned about. The Capitals are doing the large things right. They just have to pinpoint the little things that they’re doing wrong and fix them. If they do that, I’ll be shocked if they’re not a playoff team this season. History is on their side.