Alex Ovechkin Will Win Another Rocket Richard Trophy
Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports
With the help of two goals last evening against the Pittsburgh Penguins, Washington Capitals captain Alex Ovechkin is back at the top of the goals scored list. Alex Ovechkin has already won four Rocket Richard Trophies. If he wins it this year, this will be his fifth in eight seasons. However, is Alex Ovechkin the favorite to win it this year? Let’s take a look.
Why Alex Ovechkin Isn’t The Favorite
Just because Alex Ovechkin has scored the most goals in the NHL so far this season doesn’t make him the favorite to win. Ovechkin will likely face three real competitors. Those would be Rick Nash, Tyler Seguin, and Steven Stamkos. Let’s look at an extremely simple stat: goals per game. It is quite likely that each of these guys are going to play in all of their respective team’s games this season, so I’ll multiply the result by 81.
- Ovechkin: 0.604 goals per game (48.93)
- Seguin: 0.595 goals per game (48.25)
- Stamkos: 0.530 goals per game (42.97)
- Nash: 0.622 goals per game (50.4)
Simply put, assuming Nash and Ovechkin continue scoring at their current rate and each one plays
More from Capitals News
- Breaking down the Rookie Camp roster
- Hear what Magic Johnson said about Alex Ovechkin
- Capitals announce Rookie Camp schedule
- Breaking down the 2023-24 Capitals national TV schedule
- Capitals Alumni Weekend is coming back
all 81 games, Nash would have roughly a one to two goal lead over Ovechkin. Seguin isn’t too far off from the paces of Ovechkin and Nash. One hot scoring streak and he could wind up with it. Stamkos is clearly the underdog, but I’ve watched Stamkos play enough times to know that he can never be counted out. Alex Ovechkin clearly has some competition. However, I don’t think that will matter.
Why Alex Ovechkin Is The Favorite
The Rocket Richard race is likely going to be extremely close. I think it will come down to who can come the closest to matching their current goal scoring pace. If it comes down to whose goal scoring rate is more sustainable, I’ll take my chances with Ovechkin every single day of the year. That is not an insult to Nash, Seguin, or Stamkos. That’s a compliment to how efficient Alex Ovechkin is. Nash and Stamkos are riding high shooting percentages. Their goal scoring rate relies on them getting goals while being pretty selective as far as their shots. Let’s take a look at Nash and Stamkos first.
Shooting Chart courtesy of www.sportingcharts.com
Shooting Chart courtesy of www.sportingcharts.com
The first one is Nash. The second one is Stamkos. When I look at Rick Nash’s, the first thing I see is that Nash scores a ton of his goals close to the net. He has a 16.9% shooting percentage right now, which is 4.3% higher than his career shooting percentage of 12.6%.
Stamkos is similar to Nash, in that he relies on a high shooting percentage. However, his rate is likely more sustainable because a high shooting percentage is one of his trademarks. His shooting percentage is 16.3%, which is lower than his career shooting percentage of 17.3%. As I said, I’ve watched Stamkos long enough to know to never count him out of a goal scoring race. He’s selective with his shots, but dang is he accurate.
That leaves the two guys who rely more on pure shot volume (which I believe is more sustainable than a high shooting percentage): Tyler Seguin and Alex Ovechkin.
Shooting Chart courtesy of www.sportingcharts.com
Shooting Chart courtesy of www.sportingcharts.com
Alex Ovechkin’s shooting chart is the first one. Seguin’s is the second. Let’s look at Seguin first. Seguin has very little orange to red (which indicates a heavy shot/goal volume) on his. That means that he’s very good at generating shots from pretty much anywhere on the ice and he doesn’t even have a clear favorite spot. His 14.5% shooting percentage is 2.6% higher than his career average of 11.9%, so that’s a sign that a little regression might be coming. Still, I think Seguin’s style of shooting is pretty sustainable. When you shoot a lot, you tend to score a lot.
Now let’s look at Alex Ovechkin’s. It’s pretty darn obvious where he loves to shoot the puck. If you’ve ever seen him play, I bet you knew right where to look! Ovi leads the league in shots with 230 shots. Seguin is second with 193. Nobody creates scoring chances like Ovechkin. Outside of the well-known Ovi spot, Alex Ovechkin does an excellent job of creating scoring chances no matter where he is. He’ll shoot the puck when you least expect it. He doesn’t particularly care where he is when he does it either. His career shooting chart reflects that. NOTE: THIS IS ONLY FROM 2009 TO PRESENT.
Shooting Chart courtesy of www.sportingcharts.com
Alex Ovechkin’s shooting percentage right now is 12.6%, which is just 0.3% more than his career average of 12.3%. I’d have to call Alex Ovechkin the favorite to win another Rocket Richard trophy for several reasons. First, unlike Stamkos and Nash, he’s not relying on being selective and having a high shooting percentage. Secondly, unlike Seguin, Alex Ovechkin has a history of doing what he’s currently doing: scoring from everywhere.
NHL fans better buckle up because this should be a very close goal scoring race. I’ll take my chances betting on the best shooter in the world Alex Ovechkin to win a goal scoring race.