Washington Capitals Vs. New York Islanders By The Numbers: Score Adjusted Possession
Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports
It’s official. The Washington Capitals and New York Islanders will be squaring off in the first round of the 2015 Stanley Cup Playoffs. This is the seventh time that the Washington Capitals and New York Islanders have met in the playoffs. They have also met in the playoffs in 1983, 1984, 1985, 1986, 1987 and 1993. The Islanders have won five of those six playoff series against the Washington Capitals. The Caps lone playoff series win against the Islanders came in 1986. The Washington Capitals hope to change that number to two starting on Wednesday.
The Washington Capitals come into this series with home-ice advantage after clinching second place in the division following the Islanders’ shootout loss to the Columbus Blue Jackets. The Caps and Islanders have played four times this season. Of those four games, three of them took more than sixty minutes to end. The second game (a 5-2 win for the Caps) was the only game between these two bitter rivals that ended in regulation.
The Washington Capitals have a 2-0-2 record against the Islanders this season. However, the Islanders dominated three of the four games between the two teams. Let’s take a look at the Capitals’ score-adjusted even strength Fenwick For (fenwick is all unblocked shot attempts) percentage for each game. Usually I like Corsi, but score adjusted FF% tends to be more predictive than score adjusted CF%.
- Game One (3-2 overtime loss): 44.3%
- Game Two (5-2 win): 49.7%, but it’s worth noting that their score adjusted CF% was 55.1%
- Game Three (4-3 overtime loss): 37.7%
- Game Four (3-2 shootout win): 43.5%
Except for the second game, the Islanders certainly have the Caps number as far as puck possession.
Washington Capitals Vs. New York Islanders: The Goaltenders
The difference in those three games the Caps got out-Fenwicked in? Goaltending. The Washington Capitals have Braden Holtby (94.95% unadjusted even strength save percentage against the Islanders in four games) in net, while the Islanders have Jaroslav Halak (93.02% unadjusted even strength save percentage against the Capitals in two games). Looking at their save percentages over the past 25 games, they’re closer than you might think.
Holtby vs. Halak unadjusted save percentage, 25 game rolling average, during all situations. Credit:
Holtby v. Halak 25 game rolling adjusted save percentage at even strength. Credit:
Holtby’s trending downward, but that might have more to do with his fatigue than his talent level. He has three days to rest before the series starts on Wednesday, but keep in mind that the Washington Capitals haven’t exactly done well when given that rest. As far as Halak, he’s been his usual unpredictable self. He can look outstanding one night, and then he can give up numerous soft goals the next. Let’s hope bad Halak shows up instead of 2010 playoffs Halak.
Washington Capitals Vs. Islanders: Score Adjusted Possession
The Washington Capitals come into this game as a better possession team over the past twenty games. The Caps have been trending upwards as of late, while the Islanders have been trending downwards.
Caps vs. Islanders 2o game rolling score adjusted Fenwick For Percentage. Caps are red, Isles are orange. Credit:
I think that this series is going to come down to the pace of the game. The Washington Capitals and New York Islanders play at two completely different paces. The Islanders play very high event hockey (both for and against), while the Caps have perfected playing at a slower pace.
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"Back to Tavares for a moment, the Islanders, it’s worth noting, play at the second-highest pace in the League (Dallas is first), so if the Caps draw New York in the first round, expect to hear a lot about the Caps wanting to slow the game down. Should they? Maybe not.In their highest-paced game against the Isles, the Caps dominated shot attempts; in their slowest game, they were dominated. And the difference in score-adjusted five-on-five Islander shot attempts between the two games was roughly five; for the Caps, it was 23. – Japers Rink"
The Washington Capitals and New York Islanders rely on different things. The Islanders rely heavily on speed, while the Capitals liked to slow down the pace on both ends of the ice. That’s not necessarily a bad thing because the Washington Capitals do so quite efficiently.
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Score-Adjusted CF60 and CA60 for both teams. Higher CF60 is better, lower CA60 is better. Credit:
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There are arguments for and against increasing one’s pace. I think the Washington Capitals will have to increase their pace a bit to give themselves a better chance at winning this series while still doing a good job of suppressing shot attempts. They have three great puck movers on their blue line in John Carlson, Matt Niskanen, and Mike Green. They have two shutdown defensemen in Brooks Orpik and Karl Alzner who have proven to be quite capable of holding their own. They have the forwards to pull it off. They can probably handle a few more scoring chances thanks to Holtby and the defense. Meanwhile, the Islanders defense has been struggling mightily, especially over their last 30-40 games. That was before they lost one of their best defenseman in Travis Hamonic. If he’s not 100% healthy, that really hurts the Islanders.
Isles vs. Caps 20 game rolling score adjusted Fenwick Against/60 at even strength. Caps are dark, Islanders are bright. Credit: War-On-Ice
Picking up the pace (which means more scoring chances for) would probably benefit the Washington Capitals as long as they don’t give up lots of scoring chances (because picking up the pace obviously increases both shot attempts for and shot attempts against).
This should be an excellent series. I think it’s quite likely that this series is going to seven games. If the Caps can take advantage of the Islanders’ declining defense, they have a nice chance of winning. If the Islanders forwards dominate, the Islanders will likely win. Which one will happen? We’ll have to see.
Tomorrow, we’ll take a look at a similarity between the two teams that people (namely those who are more analytic minded like myself) might not have guessed exists, but it’s a similarity that is both important and intriguing to this playoff series.
Next: Three Things That Must Happen In Order For The Caps To Win The Stanley Cup