Nate Schmidt: Washington Capitals 2014-2015 Season Review
Mandatory Credit: Chris Humphreys-USA TODAY Sports
Continuing our season review series, today we look at the man with the hugest smile around
The Washington Capitals had a successful season in 2014-2015. Here at Stars and Sticks, we’ll analyze each of the Washington Capitals and their season. Yesterday, we took a look at the season of Justin Peters, who was mediocre at best for the Capitals. Today, we take a look at the Capitals defenseman who just can’t stop smiling, Nate Schmidt.
Nate Schmidt’s Spider Diagram
CREDIT: @IneffectiveMath
CREDIT: @IneffectiveMath
Nate Schmidt’s Season Review
THE GOOD: As you can tell by his spider diagram above, Nate Schmidt drives possession like few can. Nate Schmidt had the highest even strength CorsiFor percentage (53.93%), highest score-adjusted even strength CF% (54.14%), second highest score-adjusted even strength scoring chances for percentage (53.15%), highest even strength Fenwick For percentage (53.44%), highest even strength FF% during close situations (54.14%) and highest even strength shots for percentage (53.11%) among all Caps defenseman who had at least 200 minutes of playing time at even strength. He did all of this despite having the lowest Corsi Teammate% (which measures the quality of the players on your team that you share the ice with) among Caps defensemen with at least 200 minutes of playing time at even strength (49.24%). To summarize all of that in one sentence, despite playing with mostly inferior teammates, he still managed to make them better as far as possession. That does not happen by accident.
From a non-advanced stats standpoint, I think Nate Schmidt played beautifully with Mike Green this season. I think Nate Schmidt was an ideal partner for Green. Here’s why. The book has been out on how to neutralize Green for a while now. If you pressure him when he has the puck in the defensive zone and make him have to make quick decisions, his greatest assets (his vision and his skating) will be largely neutralized. You may even force him into a turnover.
Having a guy like Nate Schmidt back there to help him made things a lot easier for Green. Schmidt is a very capable puck mover. By the end of Schmidt’s run with Green as his partner, I noticed teams were backing off of Green because they respected Nate Schmidt’s ability to move the puck. I didn’t see much for Nate Schmidt in the defensive zone this season, but what I saw was very encouraging. Nate Schmidt does not need to be sheltered with offensive zone draws.
THE BAD: Sadly possession stats are just one part of the picture of analyzing hockey players. Nate Schimdt’s production did not match his outstanding possession stats. He had the lowest points per 60 minutes rate at even strength (0.47), the second fewest even strength points (four), and the second fewest assists at even strength (three) of any Caps defenseman. Part of this is due to his inferior line mates and his 6.6% on-ice team shooting percentage at even strength. However, he also played against inferior competition, so obviously that’s a slight concern.
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Nate Schmidt also had the lowest even strength Goals For percentage (47.37%) of any Caps defenseman with at least 200 minutes at even strength. That probably does not reflect Nate Schmidt’s talent level. A majority of his playing time happened back when the Caps couldn’t buy a goal and had awful puck luck.
Nate Schmidt saw his playing time dwindle due to several mistakes made while on the ice. When he was back in Hershey for a conditioning stint, he got injured. This cost Schmidt any playing time that he might have gotten with the Caps.
FUTURE OUTLOOK: I’ll be honest with you guys. I don’t know what to make of Nate Schmidt. Yes, his possession stats are incredible. However, that’s a 39 game sample size. That’s a pretty small sample size. Also, his production has not matched his possession stats. Again, I can’t really make anything of that because of his 39 game sample size.
Nate Schmidt could be a second pairing caliber defenseman. Or he could be just a third pairing guy. I really don’t know at this point. I think the Capitals have to find out what they have in him. From the limited sample size I’ve seen from Schmidt, I believe he definitely deserves a much longer look in 2015-2016.
Speaking of which, I don’t know if Nate Schmidt really fits into the future plans of the Caps, though the biggest reason I think that isn’t his fault. Schmidt is left handed. The Caps have Brooks Orpik, Karl Alzner and perhaps Dmitry Orlov above Schmidt on the depth chart as far as lefty defensemen. Also, the one situation where I think Schmidt could help the most is one that he probably can’t participate in thanks to his handedness. If Nate Schmidt was right handed, he’d be an awesome power play option. However, he’s left handed. The Caps power play needs a righty shot from the point.
DISCUSSION: What do you think Nate Schmidt is at this point? Would you like to see Schmidt in a larger role next season? Who should he be paired with? Is he really an ideal partner for Orlov?
Next: Top 10 Defensemen In Washington Capitals History