Washington Capitals: Drafting Ilya Samsonov A Bold Move
Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports
The Washington Capitals drafted Russian goaltender Ilya Samsonov with their first round pick (22nd overall) of the 2015 NHL Draft. Samsonov’s pick came as a tad bit of a surprise to me, especially after I made the mistake of thinking I knew what Washington Capitals General Manager Brian MacLellan thought. I thought that they would be going after a forward, but they drafted Samsonov instead. After my initial shocked reaction, I love the pick for the Caps.
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I’m not Brian MacLellan, so I can’t speak for him, but I think I understand the Washington Capitals logic in drafting him. MacLellan stated that the Washington Capitals “would draft the best available player”, something that they consistently did while George McPhee was their general manager. Clearly, to the Washington Capitals, Samsonov was the best player available. I believe that MacLellan was referring to upside and potential value to the Washington Capitals when he said “best player available”.
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Samsonov has the potential to bring a ton of value to the Washington Capitals, as he has the potential to be a borderline-elite or elite goaltender in the NHL. In an era where teams selling goaltenders at a high price will have teams lining up practically begging for the opportunity to buy them, it never hurts to have depth in the net. An elite goaltender is arguably the most valuable position in hockey. Even Sidney Crosby can’t mask the flaws of his team. Can Crosby (or ANY skater for that matter) make up for his blue line allowing a breakaway or a wide open shot? Nope. However, goaltenders are in a unique position because they do have the power to mask those flaws.
If you want to see the value that an elite goaltender has, look at what Carey Price did for the Montreal Canadiens. Goaltenders can consistently mask the flaws of the rest of their team. Braden Holtby did that for the Washington Capitals this season. Samsonov has the potential to be the kind of goalie who consistently puts the Washington Capitals in a position to win. The only thing more valuable than a great goaltender? A young and cheap one. Samsonov has a good shot of being that for several years.
Thanks to the Washington Capitals depth in net, the Caps can afford to be very patient with Samsonov. They’ll have to be for the first three seasons as Samsonov’s KHL contract does not expire until after the 2017-2018 season. The Washington Capitals could always buy him out from his KHL team or his KHL team could agree to do so, but those two scenarios rarely happen. There’s always the risk that he might stay in the KHL, but you could say the same thing about every European prospect save those in one of the North American junior hockey leagues.
Samsonov gives the Washington Capitals a bit of flexibility regarding Braden Holtby. Holtby is a restricted free agent who is going to cash in. The Capitals would most likely like to avoid paying him for any post-prime seasons. Holtby will turn 26 in September. If the Capitals offered Holtby a five year contract, they would be paying him until 2020 when he turns 30. That’s typically when goaltenders begin to exit their prime. There are exceptions to the rule such as Henrik Lundqvist and Pekka Rinne, but who knows if Holtby will be an exception. Do the Washington Capitals really want to pay money to find out? Probably not. Guess who would be 23 years old and have two seasons of AHL/NHL seasoning on his resume in 2020? Samsonov.
From a data-risk standpoint, the Washington Capitals made a pretty good decision. NHL prospects are risky. Samsonov has roughly the same chance of panning out as any of the high upside forwards who were available at the 22nd pick. If anything, I might give Samsonov a slightly better chance of panning out thanks to Caps goaltending coach Mitch Korn. If you’re going to assume a risk, and all the risks you can assume have roughly the same odds of giving you a reward, why not go for the option that would give you the highest reward?
Did the Washington Capitals make a smart decision by drafting Samsonov? I’d wager yes, but we’ll have to wait a while to find out. However, I do know one thing: they sure made a bold decision and it could have a huge payout for the Caps.
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