Justin Williams: Huge Bargain For Washington Capitals

Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

The Washington Capitals got more than just a top six forward in Williams. They have the guy who could potentially take them to the promised land. And he’ll be doing it for cheap.

The Washington Capitals were stuck between a rock and a hard place. The Pittsburgh Penguins had just traded for Phil Kessel. The Columbus Blue Jackets had just traded for Brandon Saad. The Islanders had just fortified their goaltending by signing potential bargain Michal Neuvirth and extended underrated forward Anders Lee. The Capitals couldn’t afford to wait for Joel Ward any longer. They had to make a move. They made a very wise one in signing three time Stanley Cup Champion and 2014 Conn Smythe Trophy winner Justin Williams. 

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SEE ALSO: Caps Sign Justin Williams To Two Year Deal

What else is there to say about Justin Williams? He’s Mister Game Seven. For a team that has historically struggled mightily in games seven, I can’t think of a better fit for the Caps than Williams. In his career, Justin Williams has played in seven games seven and has yet to lose one. That’s right, he’s 7-0 in games seven. In those seven games, Williams has risen his level of play, which is something that the Caps have struggled with. He has seven goals and 14 points in those seven games seven. That makes him the all-time leading scorer in games seven. By comparison, the Caps have won FOUR game sevens in their franchise history.

It’s more than just that though. Justin Williams represents everything that the Washington Capitals need to succeed. The Caps have historically struggled at obtaining players who make their team better on a consistent basis. Even with his dip in scoring in 2014-2015 (noted that the Kings in general dipped in scoring), Williams was still an outstanding possession driver.

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Justin Williams has been an outstanding possession driver for far longer than just one season. In fact, he has the second highest five on five CF% and the second highest five on five FF% since the 2007 season among forwards with at least 6,000 minutes at five on five. In case you’re more of a “what have you done for me now” kind of person, since the 2012-2013 lockout shortened season, Williams is also second in five on five CF% (60%) and third in five on five FF% (59%) among forwards with at least 2,000 minutes at five on five. In short, if there’s a possession demigod and it’s not Patrice Bergeron or Pavel Datsyuk, it’s Justin Williams. 

So what exactly is Justin Williams best at? Generating shot attempts or suppressing shot attempts? Let’s just say he’s very good at both. In 2014-2015, Williams had a CA/60 (on-ice Corsi events against per 60 minutes) at even strength of 45.84. That wound up being the fifth lowest among all right wings with at least 800 minutes of playing time. He also had a CF/60 (on-ice Corsi Events for per 60 minutes) at even strength of 61.49. That was the 24th highest among all forwards. That was all during a down year, by the way. Despite seeing teammates injured or suspended, Justin Williams still had one heck of a season. The Caps have lacked players like Williams for so long. Grabbing one is huge. Grabbing one at the price that got Williams could have monumental effects.

Justin Williams is an amazing player and the Capitals have him. What kind of influence is he going to have on the team? First of all, he’s going to make anyone who he plays with better. This is not up for debate, this is a fact.

That’s right. While he produces like a fringe second liner, he drastically improves pretty much anyone who he plays with. He also makes them far better possession players, perhaps better than anyone else in the league. His GA60 is slightly concerning, but Jonathan Quick isn’t the ultra-elite goaltender that most people think he is (he’s still really good) so that probably affected this graph. 

So where should the Caps use Justin Williams? Honestly, I think he’d be best in sort of a utility role. He has the skill set to play on any of the Caps top three forward lines. If the Caps are trailing? Put him on the first line with Alex Ovechkin and Nicklas Backstrom and get out of the way. Williams is very good at suppressing shot attempts, mostly by maintaining possession and helping his team get the puck back quickly. The Caps struggled last season while they were leading or tied. Williams certainly helps with that. I think the line that will benefit the most from his presence is the second line. Last season, Evgeny Kuznetsov and Marcus Johansson put up encouraging numbers. However, their possession stats weren’t that pretty. A large part of that is because of Troy Brouwer. Put Justin Williams on the second line and I guarantee you’ll see a huge uptick in production from the second line. That’s the kind of guy Williams is: he makes everyone who he plays with better.

The Capitals could have chosen to overreact. Instead, they decided to get the guy who could take them to a Stanley Cup. He’s done it with other teams three times before. Best of all? They did it at a price that quite possibly makes Williams the biggest bargain from day one of free agency.