Washington Capitals: Dmitry Orlov Could Be X-Factor
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The Washington Capitals 2015 season will be the first in a decade without the presence of former defenseman Mike Green, who will take his talents to Detroit for the next three seasons after departing in free agency. Despite playing on the team’s third defensive pairing for the entire 2014 season under new coach Barry Trotz, Green recorded 45 points. That was his highest total since the 2009-10 season, where he hit a career high 76 points.
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Although the topic has been beaten to death, Green’s departure has the potential to really hurt the overall production from the Washington Capitals blue line, and even the team as a whole. Fortunately, this isn’t going to be another post about Green. This is about the opportunity that sits in front of one of the Washington Capitals former top prospects, Dmitry Orlov.
Orlov, 24, sat out the entirety of the 2014-15 season after undergoing wrist surgery last offseason, after he suffered a broken left wrist at the 2014 IIHF World Hockey Championships. He did complete an AHL-conditioning stint late in the season, but never made it out of the press box for the Washington Capitals.
The six foot, 210-pound defenseman has displayed a booming shot and the ability to dish out big hits, but has never been able to carve out a permanent spot with the big squad. At one point, Orlov even asked for a trade when Adam Oates was at the helm late in 2013. The request never came to fruition after he began seeing regular playing time with the Washington Capitals. He even signed an extension that takes him through the 2015-16 season.
Unfortunately for Orlov, he did not see the ice for the Washington Capitals in the first year of his extension. He is again entering a contract year, which could benefit both team and player, as players often conveniently have career years when playing for a new contract. This is not to say that anyone should expect Dmitry Orlov to replicate Green’s 45-point performance while skating on the third pairing. His career-high of 19 points came over the course of 60 games during the 2011-12 campaign, so his production this year will likely be closer to that, if not a bit higher.
However, health permitting, and also due to the departure of trade deadline pickup Tim Gleason, Orlov looks penciled in on the Washington Capitals third pairing. He is likely to be paired up with Nate Schmidt, who could expect a breakout season of his own.
Like Schmidt, Orlov has the underlying stats on his side. Despite the relatively small sample size of 119 games over the course of three stints with the Washington Capitals, Orlov has posted an even strength CorsiFor% of 50.9. This isn’t bad, and it has improved each season that he has played. Basically, when he is on the ice, the Washington Capitals outshoot their opponents. His best performance in these terms was when he was paired with Mike Green in the 2013-14 season, and posted a CF% of 52.0.
Orlov’s likely partner, Schmidt, posted an even strength CF% of 53.93% last season. As a pairing, the duo seem primed to drive possession. For both players, however, the actual stats aren’t there to match their “fancy stats”. Luckily, this season, each player will likely get to see significantly more opportunities than they have previously received.
While Orlov posted good possession numbers with Green, he was often caught out of position while trying to play a more defensive role. That is something that can be fixed with experience and consistent playing time, not to mention that he will have a chance to play under a proven coach such as Barry Trotz. For the first time in his career, Orlov won’t be forced to play a complementary role to a veteran player, such as John Carlson or Green.
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Though both Orlov and Schmidt will be asked to play a bit more of a two-way game between them, they each could finally see the freedom to play their game and not simply be a passenger on their pairing. If he impresses and can stay healthy, Orlov will very likely see his first full-time NHL season, thus logging a career-high in games played, and thus his overall statistics will hopefully increase along the way.
Orlov is a very skilled player, which is why his tendency is to push the pace and create chances through attacking the opposition. If he and Schmidt play favorable minutes and in favorable situations under Trotz, the two could very easily exceed the expectations being placed on them.
Traditionally, the Washington Capitals power play has relied on right-handed shots from the point, but that could change this season. It is reasonable to expect that Orlov will play some big minutes on the power play this upcoming season. With their power play quarterback, Green, no longer here, John Carlson is expected to take over point duties full time on the first PP unit. That leaves room for either Schmidt or Orlov to pair with Matt Niskanen on the second unit.
Orlov is probably a safe bet for that spot, based on his shot, as well as his playmaking and creative abilities, which are still probably ahead of Schmidt’s at this point. Mike Green tallied a goal and 16 assists on the power play last year. Again, Orlov will probably not come close to replicating those numbers, but he can help soften the blow.
One of the biggest reasons that Orlov could be an x-factor this season is the possibility of an injury to someone such as Brooks Orpik. Orpik will be 35 with 4 years still remaining on his contract at the start of the 2015-16 season. Despite being a hard hitter, Orpik was able to play 78 games last season. The question is, how long can Orpik’s body hold up with his very physical style?
This is where Orlov could be an extremely vital piece to the Washington Capitals puzzle. Karl Alzner and Niskanen formed a very solid pairing last year, so if Barry Trotz prefers to keep them together, even in the case of an injury, either Orlov or Schmidt would have to slide up beside John Carlson to fill the void. Based on his experience, expect Orlov to get the nod, at least primarily, over Schmidt, to move up in the lineup in any capacity.
Obviously, having the defense at full strength for the majority of the year, like last year, is the most ideal situation. Either way, there are many opportunities that could arise for Orlov to really take his game to the next level and become the constant threat that he was advertised to be as he emerged through the Washington Capitals system.
Orlov has the chance to become a key factor in the Capitals taking the next step towards their ultimate goal, winning the Stanley Cup.
Orlov has all of the intangibles to eventually become a very effective top-four defenseman. He has the shot, the size, the “hockey IQ,” and the creativity. Now that he will have an opportunity to play consistent minutes, he has the chance to become a key factor in the Capitals taking the next step towards their ultimate goal, winning the Stanley Cup.
Given this information, a reasonable prediction for Dmitry Orlov in the 2015-16 season, health permitting and all, is a total in the neighborhood of 8 goals and 19 assists for 27 points, over ~75 games played. This would be a solid step in his development and provide incentive for both the Capitals and Orlov to sign another extension to keep him here for years to come.