Washington Capitals: How They Can Take Advantage of the Hurricanes

At this point, it’s no secret what the matchup is going to look like for the Washington Capitals and the Carolina Hurricanes.

The Carolina Hurricanes are the masters of shot quantity, while the Washington Capitals are masters of shot quality. The winner of this series will likely dabble into the method of the other. But if the Caps want to stave off the Hurricanes, a trendy upset pick of late, there’s a few boxes they’ll have to check throughout the entire series if they want to avoid going out in round one. To do that will take a mix of schematic adjustments and typical talk, but it’ll end up being the reasons the Capitals either survive and advance or watch round two from home for the first time since 2014.

Manage the Shot Attempts from Carolina

This one seems basic in nature, but against Carolina, it’s much easier said than done. Carolina is a dangerous team, and to think otherwise at this point would be irresponsible. Since Jan. 1, the Hurricanes ended the regular season 30-12-2, which is a 119 point pace extrapolated over 82 games. A big reason for that, as documented heavily, is the potency of the Hurricanes offensive attack. The Canes finished second in the NHL in Corsi Percentage this season at 54.8 percent, causing enough reason for concern.

In comparison, the Capitals finished 18th at 49.04 percent, although there was a significant uptick after the Trade Deadline in late February. But in order for the Capitals to keep Carolina down this series, they’ll have to manage the shot attempts that Carolina can put on net. This can work one of two ways: The Capitals can manage the shot attempts and chances that the Hurricanes get, which is obviously the most preferred method. The second, however, would be to trade chances with the Canes.

If the Capitals, who have more top-end talent than the Hurricanes do, are able to go blow-for-blow in trading chances, that is an aspect of the series that will favor Washington. Braden Holtby vs. Petr Mrazek in net favors Washington on paper, so if the Capitals are able to trade the amount of chances, both in-high danger and otherwise, the Capitals should hold the advantage there.

Give ‘Em The Bird

But obviously, you can’t just say, ‘manage the shot attempts and you’ll win,” without a plan. And that plan involves Evgeny Kuznetsov being the player that he was in last year’s Stanley Cup Playoffs. Kuznetsov will be paired with T.J. Oshie and new addition Carl Hagelin and be tasked with shutting down Carolina’s top line of Sebastian Aho, Nino Niederreiter and Justin Williams. Hagelin, who might be the team’s best defensive forward, will have to play a big role in this series and throughout the rest of the playoffs should the Caps advance. Carolina’s trio of those three put together a Corsi For Percentage of 59.1 at 5 on 5 this year and owned a High-Danger percentage of 57.42. Simply put, they’re dangerous.

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On March 26, the second-to-last time these two played, they put up a CF percentage of 64.71. But in the matchup two days later, they only owned 43.3 percent of the chances. Aho, who scored 30 goals this season, must be shut down if the Capitals are going to keep the Hurricanes at bay offensively. For a team lacking top-end talent, taking away the team’s leading scorer is a good way to strangle the offense. And for now, that looks like it will be a task placed on the plate of Kuznetsov and company.

Third Line Heroes

While last year’s run was led by the Alex Ovechkin, Kuznetsov, John Carlson and Holtby, there’s a reason Andre Burakovsky and Devante Smith-Pelly are beloved in D.C. to this day. It takes more than just the top two lines to win a series, and that’s where the third line comes in to play for Washington. Jakub Vrana has been bumped down to the third line, and will pair with Lars Eller and Brett Connolly. Those three haven’t put up great possession numbers, which could be a source of problems as the series wears on, but what they do have is talent. And lots of it.

Those three combined for 59 goals and 70 assists this year. If the Capitals plan is to line-match top lines as it appears to be, the third line of the Capitals will be facing a third line for the Hurricanes (consisting of Andrei Svechnikov, Jordan Martinook and Lucas Wallmark) that combined for 45 goals and 45 assists. That’s a pretty decided advantage for the Capitals in talent, and this should be where the depth of Washington’s talent shines through in the series.

Let The Stars Shine

Not only do the Capitals have more high-end talent, they’ve also got more talent top-to-bottom than the Hurricanes. How the Capitals use that talent, it goes without saying, is what will decide the series. The Capitals, even if their chances aren’t as great against the Hurricanes, will have to ensure their top line guys get their chances at the net. With no disrespect towards Aho or Tuevo Teravainen, it’s a pretty safe bet you’d rather have Nicklas Backstrom and Ovechkin as a one-two punch on the top line.

The same can be said in net, where Vezina-winning goaltender Holtby has the clear on-paper advantage over Mrazek. If Washington can chase Mrazek early, Carolina could be in for a rough go of things, and a short series. If the Capitals can withstand the push from the Hurricanes, who play an excellent brand of team hockey, and are able to manage the chances that Carolina gets, there shouldn’t be any reason the Capitals aren’t planning trips to Long Island or Pittsburgh in two weeks.

And if Carolina is able to control the pace and limit the Capitals chances even more? Well, then it might be time to find a bandwagon team to root for.