Washington Capitals: That Ain’t Gonna Work

The easiest way for the Washington Capitals to do this is to pin their eyes open like on Clockwork orange and just try to get through it.

The Washington Capitals lost to the Carolina Hurricanes 5-0 in Game 3, but that’s actually a kinder statistical representation than how the game was played. If you’re looking for narrative and some words about how the team played, they can be found here.

In this, though, we’ll look at some numbers that illustrate last night’s, and the previous two games, in a way that won’t look too fondly on the Capitals. In fact, these numbers suck.

We’ll start with the basic: the Capitals were outshot 45-18 and managed just six shots on four power plays. They allowed five goals — though I wouldn’t go blaming Braden Holtby — and were never realistically in the game in the final two periods when, theoretically, the team’s strongest push should be present.

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Let’s not call into question effort, but realize that if a team were to not put effort forth, last night’s game is precisely what it would look like. The Capitals finished with 12 even-strength shots. The Hurricanes finished with 35.

The Capitals managed four shots in the final two periods (one in the second and three in the third) while the Hurricanes kept the pressure on and had 16 and six, respectively.

Oh, and the Hurricanes were absent Andrei Svechnikov and Micheal Ferland for the majority of the game due to injuries. The reason Svechnikov was out, as you’ve seen by now, is that Alex Ovechkin dropped him in a fight. Call it whatever you want, I’m not crazy about the best goal-scorer in the league leaving the ice for five minutes — let alone fighting — in a playoff game. That’s a win for Carolina each time, no matter who he fights.

Now, time for the numbers. Shield your eyes and protect the children. The Capitals, at five-on-five, had a Corsi (all shot attempts) of 28. The Hurricanes had a Corsi of 51. That’s a 64.5-35.44 percent split.

Not only the did the Capitals end the first period underwater (44 percent) they got worse as the game wore on. If the event chart was a medical patient, they’d have legally flatlined.

If you’re calling for Christian Djoos to be taken out of the lineup for his gaffe early on, there won’t be any disagreement from most parties. He posted a Corsi percentage of 21.05 (4-16) and was handily outplayed all game. Then again, so was everyone else.

T.J. Oshie posted the worst Corsi percentage on the team (11.1 percent) with just two shot attempts and 16 against. But again, it wouldn’t be fair to single anyone out for last night’s loss.

Which bears saying: The Evgeny Kuznetsov line is a problem defensively, which is just to say that they’re a problem in general. The team can’t get out of their own zone, which makes it tough for that offensive skill to play in the offensive zone. Kuznetsov, Oshie and Jakub Vrana posted a Corsi of 14.29 percent, and were out chanced 2-12 as a trio.

Kuznetsov is one of the best players in the entire league on the offensive side of the ice, but can’t get out of his own way in the neutral zone, and worse, in his own end. Coach Todd Reirden has got to figure something out, as does Kuznetsov, or the Capitals chances of getting out of the first round, let alone repeating, are miniscule.

Washington was out-chanced on High-Danger Chances 14-4, something we knew could happen headed into the series. What the Capitals did on Monday was a complete embarrassment. They had trouble making basic passes, they couldn’t get out of their own end and  they seemed to stop as the game wore on.

This might seem like an overreaction to just one game, as the Capitals still have the series lead and are a win away from taking a stranglehold on the series as a whole. But in two of the three games thus far, they’ve not only been outplayed, they’ve been dominated at five-on-five. There was some belief that Game 1’s result was just a product of the fact that the Capitals took an early lead and shut the game down from there, but Monday’s result should deter any talk of that.

The Capitals are decidedly the worse team at five-on-five, at least through three games. And there’s not really reason to believe that won’t continue through the rest of the series.

Through three games, the Capitals own a shot attempts percentage of 37.04 at five-on-five. A 39.13 percent share of the High-Danger chances. A 35.71 percent share of the shots. That isn’t good enough for a team that wants to replicate the same magic it had last year. It just isn’t.

If the Capitals want to escape with a series win, those numbers will have to improve, and drastically, or else they’ll be watching the Islanders and Hurricanes in the second round. The positives, of which there are few today, is that Holtby has been on his game this series. Game 3 only counts for one win, and there’s really nowhere to go but up from here. That about covers it.

With the Hurricanes absent Svechnikov for at least Game 4, and perhaps Ferland too, the Capitals will have to take advantage of an undermanned Hurricanes team. But if things don’t change in a hurry, there will be a tied series for Game 5 on Saturday.