If it looked like the Washington Capitals played their best game in Game 5 on Saturday, it’s because they did.
Not only did the Washington Capitals dominate on the scoreboard, they played their best game of the series when it comes to the advanced numbers, too.
At five-on-five, the Capitals had a Corsi Percentage of 44.59 percent. At first glance, that’s not great. In terms of total shots, Carolina out-shot Washington 30-28.
But they were at 50 percent in the first period and 56 percent in the third period. The second period (a 21-10 advantage for Carolina) really skewed the numbers of the overall game. The Capitals owned an 18-12 advantage in scoring chances, too.
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To put it simply, Washington played it’s best game in Game 5.
The Capitals withstood a Hurricanes push in the second period, counter-attacked to score two goals, and were the better team in the first and third periods.
Washington’s high-danger chances were higher than Carolina’s, too, as Washington held a 9-6 advantage. The Expected Goals (xGF) favored Carolina 1.36-1.2, but the Capitals talent and special teams play carried the water in that regard all night.
Individually, there’s some surprising and welcome figures for the Capitals.
The second line of Jakub Vrana, Evgeny Kuznetsov and Carl Hagelin had a Corsi Percentage greater than 50 percent, at 57.14 (8-6), as did the fourth line of Devante Smith-Pelly, Nic Dowd and Chandler Stephenson at 54.55 percent.
The Dmitry Orlov and Matt Niskanen pairing is still a problem for Washington, as neither reached 40 percent of the shot attempts. With some line-juggling, the defensive numbers were jumbled a bit, but there’s clear evidence that the pairing isn’t producing what it had in years past.
But, numbers aren’t everything.
Jonas Siegenthaler passed the Eye Test pretty clearly when he skated with John Carlson, and despite getting hemmed in their own zone more often than not (CF% of 36.84), the pairing looked comfortable and could be the answer the team’s Michal Kempny problem.
Which brings us to the day of Game 6, where Carolina is sure to put a better effort forth than the one it put out in Game 5. Carolina hasn’t allowed an even strength goal at home these playoffs, and forced Washington into one of the most embarrassing games the team has played in the Alex Ovechkin era back in Game 3.
Unless the score gets out of hand, and perhaps even if it does, expect a Carolina push like the one in Game 3. Washington owned the shot attempts in the two of the three periods in Game 5, but don’t expect the same kind of success in Game 6.
For the Capitals to be successful, the defensive effort the team had in Game 5 has to be there — and then some. Should the Capitals lead, Braden Holtby will be under siege.
And if the Capitals are trailing, the onus will be on beating the Hurricanes deadly forecheck and evening the shot attempts.
The Hurricanes showed some cracks in Game 5. It’s time to see if the Capitals can blow the house away, or if the Hurricanes can patch things up. This should be a fun one.