Capitals Quick Hits: Improved Play Seems Sustainable, Possible Trade Targets

Caps Coming Around?

Not long ago I wrote about how December would be a huge test for the Capitals, and so far the Capitals are passing with flying colors. They’re earned nine out of their last ten possible points including two electrifying wins against arguably the best team in the East last week, the Tampa Bay Lightning.

If you listened to Barry Trotz’s lengthy interview with the folks at WNST in Baltimore last week, he talks about how long the process can take to change an entire team’s habits. It’s clear that the Capitals had some bad habits coming in that Trotz was trying hard to correct, and probably still is, so the notion that the Capitals were inconsistent over the first two months is understandable.

It seems the Capitals had a “come to Jesus” moment after their blowout loss in Toronto a couple weeks ago. They’ve been on a roll since. They have an opportunity to take command of one of the top four spots in the Metro and distance themselves from the pack of mediocrity below them.

Orlov Setback Complicates Trade Options

The Dmitry Orlov injury setback is a real bummer. Sure, all teams deal with injuries and it’s not like the Capitals have been hit particularly hard by them this year. And sure, Nate Schmidt‘s emergence as a legitimate NHL defenseman on the third pairing softens the blow.

The problem with the uncertainty surrounding Orlov’s return is that it limit’s the team’s trade options. With Orlov in the fold the Capitals would have had a glut of quality NHL defenseman, a rare position to be in with defenseman in dire need amongst a majority of NHL teams.

The most obvious way to upgrade the team, as much as I love Mike Green, would have been to move Green’s $6 million cap hit and expiring contract, perhaps packaged with a prospect and forward, for a true top-six scoring threat. Now, the Capitals will probably keep Green for the rest of the season only to watch him get an outrageous contract offer in the off-season with such a weak free agent class.

His contract would have provided the most obvious source of desperately-needed cap relief. The Capitals can still make moves, which they will probably need to in order to make the leap into the next tier of the league, but it’ll take some creativity and a trade partner who’s excited about someone like Troy Brouwer.

Brian MacLellan is a shrewd GM and is no doubt making calls to see what’s out there to improve the offense. It seems that Taylor Hall and Jordan Eberle may be shopped from Edmonton. Ryan O’Reilly in Colorado may be another option as a true second-line center from a team sorely lacking in good defensemen. When the Maple Leafs inevitably collapse, Nazem Kadri might also become available.

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No Back-to-Backs

One thing that has to be helping the Capitals achieve a measure of consistency is the lack of back-to-back games in the last two weeks. November was loaded with them and it was super unfair. Let’s also take a second and marvel at the fact that these athletes can play an NHL hockey game two nights in a row. If I merely try to run a couple miles for two days in a row I need an IV and a team of doctors to be able to move at all for the next week. (Of course, lately it doesn’t help that from Thanksgiving through New Years my eating habits are worse than Mike Green’s while he’s recovering from an injury.)

On that note, what does Brooks Orpik do to avoid eating carbs during the holidays? Someone should write that story ASAP.

The Underlying Numbers Are Encouraging Again

Another encouraging thing about the Caps’ recent run of points is that it seems sustainable. They’re no longer a top-five possession team, but since the beginning of December their Corsi when the score is within one is 8th in the league at 52.1%. We’ll take that any day from this team. It’s hard to see them vaulting into the top 3-5 without an upgrade or two, but this is a process. The Caps are making strides.

The possession numbers indicate that the Caps’ winning ways are more sustainable than the Columbus Blue Jackets (winners of six straight) the Toronto Maple Leafs (8-1-1 in their last ten) and the Buffalo Sabres (8-3 in their last 11). Those teams are the three worst in Corsi within-one respectively since December first.

Those teams are enjoying outlandish puck-luck and other-worldly goaltending. They’ll come crashing back down to Earth soon and everyone will be wondering what went wrong, calling for trades, the coach’s head and the like.

And the funny part? Ex-hockey player-analysts and a large portion of the Canadian hockey media truly won’t understand why it’s falling apart. It’s all good and well when the teams are “JUST FINDING WAYS TO WIN!” But it won’t last. It never does when the possession numbers are that poor.

Fortunately, the Caps shouldn’t find themselves in that boat.

Orpik Haters Gonna Hate

I never thought I’d say this, but Orpik has become such a scapegoat in D.C. that he’s actually underrated by a lot of the fan base. His point totals and fancy stats won’t win him any awards or street cred amongst the MATH MAJORS and STAT BOYZ but he’s perhaps the poster boy of all the things advanced stats don’t tell us about the game.

He’s the top-ranking defenseman in the NHL in hits. He’s the second-leading defenseman in the NHL in blocked shots. Those stats count for something, and it’s probably hard for most of us to appreciate the value of them in an NHL locker room. Should he he a true top-pair defenseman? Probably not. But to dismiss the value he brings to the table seems ignorant.

Tonight the Caps take on the Panthers, who are not as bad as you think they are. Let’s hope the boys can keep the momentum going in South Florida.