Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports
The Washington Capitals are near locks to make the playoffs this season. However, who the Washington Capitals will face in the first round is still up in the air. Depending on how they finish the regular season, the Washington Capitals could face any one of five teams in the first round of the Stanley Cup playoffs. They could face the New York Rangers, Montreal Canadiens, Tampa Bay Lightning, Pittsburgh Penguins, or New York Islanders.
Any one of those five teams could be a tough matchup for the Washington Capitals. They’re all extremely good teams. However, the Caps are also an extremely good hockey team. In the playoffs, you tend to face extremely good hockey teams.
Here are the chances of the Caps facing each team in the first round, as of April 2nd, 2015.
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Over the next five days, we’ll take a look at each of the potential first round opponents for the Capitals. We’ll start with the least likely opponent: Tampa Bay.
The Lightning are an extremely good team. They’re a dominant puck possession team that can pretty much score at will. That’s what tends to happen when you have guys like Steven Stamkos, Tyler Johnson, Nikita Kucherov, Ondrej Palat, and Ryan Callahan. Their defense has been quite good at suppressing shot attempts, as they are in the top five for lowest CA60 in pretty much every situation imaginable.
The Lightning, despite having arguably the second best goal scorer in the NHL in Stamkos, don’t have a good power play. Their power play (17.9%) is ranked 19th in the NHL. However, their penalty kill has been very good. They kill 83.1% of their penalties, which is ninth in the NHL.
However, they are quite beatable. In fact, the Washington Capitals have beaten them two times this season in three games. So what’s their weakness? It’s been their goaltending. Ben Bishop has been inconsistent this season. Among goalies with at least 2000 minutes of ice time at even strength, Bishop’s 91.67% unadjusted save percentage is the fifth lowest. His 92.77% adjusted save percentage is ranked 16th out of the 25 goalies with at least 2000 minutes at even strength. That’s all despite facing the lowest amount of shots per 60 minutes of those 25 goalies (25.63).
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Also, like I said earlier, their power play just isn’t good. Their 79.6 CorsiFor/60 and 57.9 FenwickFor/60 on the power play are both the lowest in the NHL. To give you an idea of how bad that is, the Washington Capitals have a 116.8 CF/60 and 90.9 FF/60 on the power play, which are both the highest in the NHL. Their power play is even worse on the road. In the playoffs, when you get power play opportunities, you have to capitalize. The Lightning aren’t good at capitalizing on power play opportunities.
Also worth mentioning is that the Lightning are extremely good at home with a 30-8-1 record there. However, away from home, they are much worse with a 17-16-6 record. If the Caps can steal a victory or two at Tampa, that should give the Capitals an excellent chance of beating them four times before Tampa Bay beats them four times.
Washington Capitals Vs. Lightning: Forwards
Here’s a look at how both teams deploy their forwards and how productive they are. Charts are courtesy of war-on-ice.
The Lightning have really good top six forwards, but their bottom six have really struggled as far as puck possession. Rookie Jonathan Drouin is the only one of their bottom six forwards with a positive relative Corsi For percentage. It’s interesting how the Capitals have handled Andre Burakovsky when you consider Tampa Bay has had Drouin as a fourth line forward for a majority of the season. The Washington Capitals have had the same problem as Tampa Bay, but their bottom six is stronger than Tampa Bay’s bottom six, in my opinion.
ADVANTAGE: While the Washington Capitals probably have two of the three best forwards in this match up (Alex Ovechkin and Nicklas Backstrom), the Lightning have better top six forwards than the Capitals. I’ll take the better top six forwards over the better bottom six forwards.
Washington Capitals Vs. Tampa Bay Lightning: Defensemen
Let’s see how their defensemen stack up.
The Tampa Bay Lightning found a gem in free agency last summer in Anton Stralman. He’s been fantastic for Tampa Bay. When Tampa Bay did well despite not having Victor Hedman, that was largely due to Stralman. The Washington Capitals found two gems in free agency in Matt Niskanen and Brooks Orpik. Along with John Carlson, Karl Alzner and Mike Green, the Caps have had one of the most productive bluelines in the NHL this season. Those five have scored 22 more points at even strength than Tampa Bay’s top five defensemen (Stralman, Hedman, Jason Garrison, Matt Carle, and Andrej Sustr).
ADVANTAGE: The Washington Capitals have more depth and more talent on their blue line than Tampa Bay. Few teams can say that they have better blue liners than Tampa Bay. The Caps are one of them.
Washington Capitals Vs. Tampa Bay Lightning: Goalies
Here’s how Braden Holtby and Bishop compare to each other.
This is where the Washington Capitals probably have their biggest advantage. Bishop has been good, but Holtby has been excellent. Bishop at times has dragged Tampa Bay down while Holtby has been a huge reason for Washington’s success.
ADVANTAGE: Caps
Prediction
I think the Lightning are a good matchup for the Capitals. The Caps outplayed Tampa Bay all three times that they played. That said, the Lightning are a really good team. This series will not be short. I think the Caps would win in six or seven. The difference maker in the series is Holtby. The Caps are peaking at the right time while Tampa Bay isn’t.
What do you think? Let me know in the comments!