Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports
The Washington Capitals have officially cemented their playoff birth this season. However, who the Washington Capitals will face in the first round is still up in the air. Depending on how they finish the regular season, the Washington Capitals could face any one of five teams in the first round of the Stanley Cup playoffs. They could face the New York Rangers, Montreal Canadiens, Tampa Bay Lightning, Pittsburgh Penguins, or New York Islanders.
Any one of those five teams could be a tough matchup for the Washington Capitals. They’re all extremely good teams. However, the Caps are also an extremely good hockey team. In the playoffs, you tend to face extremely good hockey teams.
Credit: Hockeystats.ca
We’ve already taken a look at the Tampa Bay Lightning, New York Rangers, and the
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Montreal Canadiens. The next most likely opponent for the Washington Capitals in the first round is none other than their old rivals, the New York Islanders.
Here’s what it would take for these two teams to square off against each other.
- The Capitals and Islanders both MUST finish in the top three of the Metropolitan Division
- If the Caps are the second seed in the Metropolitan Division, they will have home ice advantage. If the Islanders are the second seed, they will have home ice advantage.
Washington Capitals Vs. New York Islanders
This would be an excellent series for two reasons. First of all, the Caps and Islanders played each other five times this season. Of those five games, four of them went into overtime. The Caps and Islander have played some extremely exciting games against each other. This is what playoff hockey is all about. Secondly, there is some history between these two teams. They haven’t played each other in the playoffs since the Dale Hunter incident. Which makes it even more ironic that Hunter was John Tavares‘s coach in juniors.
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The New York Islanders have the advantage as far as puck possession. They have a 52.9% even strength CorsiFor% while the Washington Capitals have a 51.4% even strength CF%. The Islanders have a FenClose% of 54.5%, which is the highest in the NHL, while the Capitals have a 51.7% FenClose%.
The Islanders’ biggest weakness has been their penalty kill. It is currently ranked at 26th in the NHL with a 78.1% success rate. They’ve also only won 49.3% of their faceoffs, which is 18th in the NHL. They haven’t been very good at holding leads (just a 58.3% winning percentage when they score first), but they are also the only team that has a winning percentage of over 50% when the other teams scores first.
Washington Capitals Vs. New York Islanders: Forwards
I’ve been saying this all season, but when the Islanders are healthy, they probably have the best forward group in the Eastern Conference. They are led by Tavares, and not just because he’s their captain. They also have a trio of excellent young forwards in Ryan Strome, Josh Bailey, and Anders Lee. Each of those three guys has at least 30 even strength points.
Kyle Okposo has battled injuries, but he and Tavares have excellent chemistry together. In 57 games this season, Okposo has 29 even strength points. Brock Nelson has been excellent for the Islanders. He has 1.73 points per 60 minutes at even strength, which is really good when you consider that Nelson is basically their third line center. The Islanders’ wild card is Mikhail Grabovski. As always, he’s putting up incredible puck possession numbers. However, that hasn’t resulted in points, as he has just 18 even strength points in 51 games. When Grabovski is on the ice, the Islanders simply dominate at even strength.
The Washington Capitals have a strong group of forwards themselves. I don’t think I need to remind everyone that Alex Ovechkin and Nicklas Backstrom are both incredible forwards and fully capable of carrying the Washington Capitals for extended periods of time. The Caps have been getting a lot of secondary scoring lately, which bodes well for their chances in the playoffs. Evgeny Kuznetsov has quietly had a near 40 point season as a rookie. Marcus Johansson seems to finally have his scoring touch again, as he’s shooting the puck quite well as of late. Troy Brouwer is starting heat up.
A lot of the Washington Capitals’ success this postseason will rely on their third line of Brooks Laich or Curtis Glencross, Eric Fehr, and Jason Chimera. If Fehr is out for any games in the playoffs, the Caps will miss him because Fehr really makes that third line go. While the health of Tom Wilson is in question after he blocked a shot with his head, Andre Burakovsky would replace him and he’s the kind of forward who makes things happen.
ADVANTAGE: The Islanders have better forwards than the Washington Capitals.
Washington Capitals Vs. Islanders: Defensemen
The Islanders have an underrated blue line group that is very well balanced. At even strength, their most productive defensemen has been Travis Hamonic with 23 points. Johnny Boychuk, largely thanks to his work on the power play, leads their blue liners in overall points with 34. Close behind him is Nick Leddy, who is tie with Harmonic with 33. Thomas Hickey and Lubomir Visnovsky have been solid and so has Calvin De Haan.
The Washington Capitals have gotten a ton of production from their blue line this year. John Carlson has the third most points at even strength (32) and the sixth most overall (53) among all NHL blue liners. Mike Green isn’t too far behind Carlson with 23 even strength points and 44 overall points. Matt Niskanen has quietly had a 30 point season and has been a stabilizing force for the Washington Capitals. Karl Alzner has a career high 18 points at even strength and has formed an excellent second pairing with Niskanen. Brooks Orpik hasn’t scored a goal this season, but his production has come by gobbling up tough minutes (especially on the penalty kill) and by hitting everything in sight.
ADVANTAGE: The Washington Capitals and New York Islanders are pretty even in this regard, but the Washington Capitals have been more productive so I must give them advantage to them.
Washington Capitals Vs. New York Islanders: Goalies
The Washington Capitals have Braden Holtby, while the New York Islanders did an A+ trolling job by signing former Capital (and Capitals killer back in 2010) Jaroslav Halak. Here’s how the two compare.
This is at even strength. Credit:
This is during all situations. Credit:
Holtby and Halak have both been stellar for their teams, but the Washington Capitals have the slight advantage in net as Holtby’s been just a tad bit better than Halak overall.
Prediction
I think this series is definitely going to seven games. These are two teams that played each other very close during four of the five games that they played against each other. I think the Islanders would win in seven, but don’t count out the Washington Capitals. This series would be a great one if you have no rooting interest. For Caps and Isles fans, this series will likely cause high blood pressure and nail biting.
What do you think? Let me know in the comments!
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