Justin Williams: Not Washed Up, Still A Top Six Forward
Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports
The Washington Capitals have made two huge moves this off-season. Obviously, the biggest one was trading for T.J. Oshie. Oshie gives the Capitals a strong first line right wing to pair with Alex Ovechkin and Nicklas Backstrom. Oshie’s playmaking abilities and his ability to create open space for his teammates makes him an excellent fit for the first line. The other huge move? Signing former Los Angeles Kings forward Justin Williams to a bargain two year deal.
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However, not everyone agrees with my assessment. There are those who think that Caps fans shouldn’t be excited about Justin Williams. Most notably, there’s the great Justin Bourne of The Score. He brings up some really good points that are logically sound in a recent article. While he makes good points, I think that he neglected to consider some other factors in his assessment of Justin Williams.
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"In Williams, the Caps are getting a smart veteran player while their Cup window looks as wide open as it’s ever been. So, cool. He can probably help. We’re also quite clearly seeing the statistical tail-off that comes as players age, whether you look at raw numbers, Corsi rel, whatever. He’s in decline – time, as they say, is undefeated. – The Score"
I will not disagree that Justin Williams is aging. He’s 33 years old and he’ll be turning 34 in October. I will also not deny that we are seeing a decline. However, we must look deeper than just saying that it’s his age. It’s also his usage. He went from 1.65 points/60 at even strength in 2013-2014 to 1.54 points/60 at even strength in 2014-2015.
It’s easy to say that it’s age, and likely, that did play a role in it. However, so did inferior line mates. In 2013-2014, he almost exclusively played with Dustin Brown and Anze Kopitar. Together, they were basically an unstoppable trio in terms of possession. Even so, it’s worth mentioning that Brown hasn’t been much of a scorer since 2010-2011. Kopitar and Williams were the drivers on that line and Brown was just a passenger (albeit a pretty efficient one).
Fast forward to 2014-2015. Williams spent a majority of his time with two of Jarret Stoll, Kopitar, Marian Gaborik and Brown (in order from most amount of time spent on the ice to least amount of time). He had an incredible effect on Stoll and Brown. Let’s look at their stats with and without Justin Williams. All stats are at even strength and are courtesy of Hockey Analysis.
- Stoll with Williams: 53.9% CorsiFor%, 58.6% GoalsFor%
- Stoll without Williams: 47.1% CF%, 44.4% GF%
- Brown with Williams: 57.1% CF%, 58.3% GF%
- Brown without Williams: 53.4% CF%, 37.2% GF%
He had a similar effect on Kopitar and Gaborik, though it isn’t quite as dramatic. Justin Williams was used primarily as a third line wing in 2014-2015, but I honestly must question why he was used as one. Another thing to consider about his point totals: individual point percentage. Individual point percentage (or iPP) is the percentage of goals scored by players team while player is on the ice that the player had a point on. In 2013-2014, Justin Williams had an iPP of 71.4%. In 2014-2015, it was 58.3%. That’s extremely low for anyone, let alone someone like Williams. If it was 71.4%, he would have 34 or 35 even strength points (34.272 to be exact) instead of 28. That’s 47 or 48 points instead of 41 and would have been an increase from his 43 points in the regular season in 2013-2014. Would you take that from a third liner? I sure would. It doesn’t explain everything about his decline, but it does provide some valuable context.
Worth noting: Justin Williams will likely be playing a majority of his on-ice minutes with Evgeny Kuznetsov and Andre Burakovsky or Marcus Johansson. That’s certainly an upgrade over Stoll and Brown.
"Few players have had more offensive success in their careers while skating at Williams’s level, which I will delicately phrase as being in a class of “non-muhfuh’n-burners.” It’s one thing to have success at 27 as a not great skater, but when you start at that level, then chip away at the speed a quarter-step a year, it can start to become an issue. Can he keep up? – The Score"
I’d call Kopitar and Gaborik fast players. Justin Williams certainly had no problems at all keeping up with them as they formed one heck of a trio. He’s not as fast as he used to be, but he can still be an extremely valuable player to guys like Kuznetsov and Burakovksy. Williams is a huge upgrade over Troy Brouwer, who was the Capitals primary second line right wing last season. Even if it doesn’t show up in the boxcar stats, Brouwer doesn’t make the guys around him better. Meanwhile, Williams has proven time and time again that he makes whoever he’s with better in terms of puck possession. Hint: drafting Kuznetsov and Burakovsky might be a really good idea if Williams is indeed the second line right wing.
"“Top six” also means top-six minutes for a guy who saw his ice time drop over a minute to 15:49 last season – bigger still, his ice time has declined every year since 2010-11, which may not say much, but it certainly doesn’t say nothing – and for a guy who’s exactly one 82-game season shy of hitting his 1000th(!) game. – The Score"
Justin Williams will most likely be a top six forward for the Capitals. However, Bourne brings up a really good point- what if Williams isn’t a top six forward? Well, first of all, with his relatively inexpensive salary, that wouldn’t be the end of the world. At worst, he’d make the third line (a line that Barry Trotz has always relied on quite heavily) extremely good. Also, if Williams isn’t a top six forward, that likely means that Tom Wilson has earned himself a spot in the top six. That would obviously be a very good thing for the Capitals.
Bourne makes good points about Justin Williams, but I don’t think that Capitals fans should be worried at all. Williams is going to make the Capitals a better team. I have no doubts about that.