After returning the playoffs in 2014-2015, the Washington Capitals have had a busy off-season, as they improved their team to increase their chances of making a Stanley Cup run during the 2015-2016 season. On paper, their additions look fantastic. Justin Williams gives them a proven playoff performer and helps solve their top six forward issues. T.J. Oshie gives the Washington Capitals a consistent first line right wing, something that they haven’t had since Mike Knuble.
However, as this point, the Caps don’t particularly care about just making the playoffs. They are no longer content with just that. They’ve become greedy. They want to win the Stanley Cup. In order to for that to occur, they’re going to need several things to happen. That excludes getting “lucky” because let’s face it, to win the Stanley Cup, you’re going to need pucks to bounce your way. It’s inevitable.
If the Washington Capitals win the Stanley Cup, it will most likely be because they followed these five keys to success.
Next: Power Play Is Key
Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports
Washington Capitals Power Play Must Not Disappear
Why did the Washington Capitals lose to the New York Rangers in the playoffs last season? Henrik Lundqvist playing out of his mind (yet again) certainly played a huge part in it. However, I’d say the biggest reason was that the Capitals power play disappeared in the playoffs. During the regular season, the Caps power play was an elite group, scoring on a league leading 25.3% of their power plays. In the playoffs, it fell to just 10.7%. Against the Rangers, the Caps managed to score on just one of their fifteen (6.7%) of their chances with an extra man.
As great as John Carlson was in 2014-15, I admit that he played a pretty big role in this failure. The Capitals power play revolves heavily around getting the puck to Alex Ovechkin. Carlson struggled mightily with his passing after taking over Mike Green’s spot on the first power play unit. If Carlson fails again in 2015, the Caps could go to Matt Niskanen, who is no stranger to having success on the power play.
There is hope, however. T.J. Oshie was a contributor for the Blues power play. Though he has unimpressive numbers, he is likely a better option around the net than Troy Brouwer. Oshie’s quickness, cat-like reflexes and unpredictability could make him a lethal weapon for the Washington Capitals.
The Washington Capitals will have plenty of power play options, as Evgeny Kuznetsov and Andre Burakovsky are currently not even slotted to be on the first power play unit (assuming everyone is healthy). If Marcus Johansson struggles, Burakovsky could easily replace him. Kuznetsov could be an option there as well, but he is better suited in Backstrom’s role. If the Caps really want to get creative, their power play currently isn’t well suited for a left-handed defenseman, but Nate Schmidt and Dmitry Orlov could force the Caps to find a way to get them involved.
Next: Take Advantage of Bad Teams
Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports
Washington Capitals Must Beat Bad Teams
The Washington Capitals were fairly efficient at this during the 2014-15 season. They faced 14 non-playoff teams. Of those 14 non-playoff teams, they had a point percentage of 50% of lower against just five of them (the Kings, Coyotes, Flyers, Stars and Oilers). The Capitals got 55 out of 84 possible points against them, which is roughly a 64.5% point percentage. Over the course of a full season, that’s 106 points. The Washington Capitals were good at beating teams that they were supposed to beat in 2014-15. They’ll have to repeat that performance in 2015-16.
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The Metropolitan Division has eight teams in it. Of those eight, only New Jersey and Carolina are clearly not contenders. Philadelphia could be a contender if things go right for them. Other than that, the other five teams (including the Caps) all figure to be contenders in 2015. The Penguins, Islanders, and Blue Jackets have all improved, whether that be by free agency, trades or by simply maturing. Each game against those teams is going to matter for the Capitals, but I’d argue that their games against easier teams matter more because beating them is an absolute MUST. If the Caps beat the teams who they should beat, that gives them a bit of a cushion in case they have trouble against one of those teams.
The Capitals aren’t going to have many cupcake games in 2015. When they get them, the Caps must not take them lightly and must capitalize by getting two points as often as possible.
Next: Consistency
Mandatory Credit: Adam Hunger-USA TODAY Sports
Losing Streaks Can’t Pile Up, But Winning Streaks Must
Two things that the Washington Capitals were remarkably good at it 2014-15: avoiding long losing streaks and maintaining winning streaks. They only had one losing streak of five games and just two losing streaks of at least four games. While they only had one four-game winning streak, they had eight winning streaks of at least three games and just three losing streaks that extended at least three games (which includes those two losing streaks of at least four). That is a recipe for success and it’s something that the Washington Capitals hope to carry over into 2015.
Losing is fine. It’s going to happen in the cruel sport of hockey. You’re going to lose games that you dominate. You’re going to lose games that you just can’t catch a break in. What’s important is forgetting about those games and focusing on winning the next game. The Caps did this well. No matter how long the winning streak or losing streak, head coach Barry Trotz ensured that the Caps didn’t get too high or too low.
Of course, you need to get a little lucky in order to avoid losing streaks and sustain winning streaks. However, if you have an elite goaltender who can consistently put you in a position every game, that tends to overrule said luck. The Washington Capitals have an elite goaltender in Braden Holtby. He’s going to be an important part of fulfilling this key to success. At times last year, the Caps struggled to score goals. Amazingly, that’s when Holtby had some of his biggest games. Thanks to a much deeper forward core, they likely won’t need to rely on Holtby as much as they did in 2015.
Next: Secondary Scoring
Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports
Scoring Depth Is Key
The Washington Capitals, despite having arguably the best goal scorer of at least the past 25 years, have struggled in recent years at scoring goals. Why is this? Because they lacked guys past Ovechkin who they could rely on to score goals. This year, the Washington Capitals have a stacked roster that should be able to pull their weight as far as goal scoring.
Barring injury, Ovechkin is going to score at least 40 goals. Heck, he’ll probably score 50 goals. Nicklas Backstrom should add around 10-20. I’d love for Backstrom to pass a little less and shoot a little more, but who am I to argue with such an incredible passer? T.J. Oshie could be a 20-25 goal scorer for the Caps, depending on his role on the power play. If Brouwer can manage to score 20 goals, Oshie should have no problem doing so as well.
Where the Caps will really stand out is on their second and third line. It’s one thing to have an elite scoring line. It’s quite another if you can trot out three scoring lines. You know who managed to do that last season? The Blackhawks and the Lightning. The Caps have the potential to be similar to them in 2015.
On the second line, the Caps will have Evgeny Kuznetsov. The Caps are hoping that the last three months of his season (March, April, and May) were not a fluke. Shot generation tends to not be fluky, so watch for him to score 20 goals in 2015. Marcus Johansson is coming off a career season. He changed from a guy who was scared to shoot the puck to a guy who was very confident with the puck. Justin Williams’s value is going to come from things that aren’t on the score sheet. However, playing alongside Kuznetsov certainly helps. I expect him to have around 40-50 points in 2015.
On their third line, the Caps will have their secret weapon: Andre Burakovsky. He generates offense at a very impressive rate. On the third line, he’ll likely be facing heavy offensive zone starts against inferior competition. That could lead to a 30-40 point season. Joining Burakovsky will be Tom Wilson, who hopes to prove that he’s more than just a guy who loves to hit people. He could be to them what Milan Lucic was to the Boston Bruins. He’s a skilled forward and I think 2015 could be the year when he starts to show that more consistently.
In case whatever their plan is at third line left wing doesn’t pan out, Jakub Vrana will be in Hershey. He can do things that people can’t even do in NHL 16. If he develops as planned in Hershey, he could be the missing piece of the Stanley Cup puzzle for the Caps, a la Teuvo Teravainen.
Next: Even Strength Domination
Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports
The Caps Must Dominate At Even Strength
The Washington Capitals are lucky that they have an elite power play unit. However, is having an elite power play really necessary to winning the Stanley Cup? Recent trends suggest that it’s not. The past four Stanley Cup champions have all had average at best power play units during the regular season.
2014-15 Blackhawks: 20th (17.6%)
2013-14 Kings: 27th (15.1%)
2012-2013 Blackhawks: 19th (16.7%)
2011-2012 Kings: 17th (16.9%)
Of course, having an elite power play unit is not a bad thing. It’s a blessing. Just note that the past four teams to win the Stanley Cup were anything BUT elite on the power play. What else do those four teams have in common? They dominated possession at even strength. Not only were they efficient when they had the puck, they were equally efficient at getting it back. They were so good at even strength that it didn’t even matter that their power plays were sub-par.
That’s the way that the Washington Capitals must be at even strength. They can’t just wait for their power play to save them. They need to get things done at even strength. The Washington Capitals made a very wise decision swapping out grit (Brouwer, Ward, Fehr) for speed and skill (Burakovsky, Oshie, Williams). Burakovsky and Williams have been monsters at even strength in terms of possession (though Burakovsky admittedly has a small sample size). Oshie doesn’t have the best possession numbers, but then again, he usually went against his opponent’s best lines while in St. Louis. The important thing is, Oshie isn’t going to hurt the Washington Capitals at even strength, which is more than I can say for Brouwer.
While the Caps will miss Mike Green’s even strength domination, Dmitry Orlov has been quite impressive in just over a 1000 even-strength minute sample size. Nate Schmidt is no slouch either. Sure, the Caps will miss Green’s production. However, when you consider how much they’ve improved in other areas, losing Green isn’t that big of a deal.
The Washington Capitals have the right ingredients to have a good shot of bringing a Stanley Cup to DC in June of 2016. However, they must follow the recipe for the end product to be a Stanley Cup.
