Washington Capitals: Game 7, By Any Means Necessary

The funny thing about Game 7 is that no one cares about what the numbers say.

Sure, possession numbers are an incredibly useful tool before the series and in the first few games to see how the course of a series is trending. But by Game 7, they don’t matter.

Everyone knows the way things have gone this series: The Hurricanes have owned the games in Raleigh; the Capitals look much more comfortable at home. The Hurricanes dominate possession at five-on-five. The Capitals have the better special teams play.

In each of the games this series, the Hurricanes have had a Corsi For percentage above 50 percent. In fact, their lowest percentage was in Game 2, at just under 52.5 percent. They’re likely going to control the puck more than the Capitals tonight, and any thoughts to the contrary are far too optimistic.

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Still, the possession numbers don’t matter aside from the 60 minutes (or, God help us, 60 minutes-plus) in which the game is played. It doesn’t matter if the Capitals or Hurricanes have one shot attempt in the entire game, as long as it’s enough to win 1-0 and advance.

See, that’s the thing about these numbers which is critical to understand their purpose. In a vacuum, they’re insanely useful to tell us who is driving play and who isn’t over the course of a season, or more specifically, in a series. They exist to tell us trends, and tendencies, and just about anything else we’re curious about for a hockey team.

But in a one-game sample size, anything can happen. And the numbers aren’t kind to Washington this series.

The highest Capital in Corsi For Percentage is Chandler Stephenson, at 47.46 percent. 11 of the players to skate in the series have a percentage below 40 percent. Which, if you couldn’t tell, is atrocious.

Four Capitals have High-Danger Chances at or above 50 percent this series: Alex Ovechkin, Nicklas Backstrom, Nick Jensen and Jonas Siegenthaler. Evgeny Kuznetsov, largely criticized this series for his lack of production, has a CF% of 35.92. He’s been hemorrhaging chances, and it doesn’t matter who he’s with this series, he hasn’t been able to shake the series he’s had.

As for the Hurricanes, every player that has skated in the series, besides Lucas Wallmark, has a CF% of 50 percent or higher. At five-on-five play, it’s been complete and total domination on the part of the Hurricanes.

But the funny thing about all of the above stats are that, as of gameday, they don’t matter. It’s one game, it’s not a series. It’s 60 minutes, it’s not an 82-game season.

Will the Capitals right the ship and control the puck more than they have all series long? Likely not. Will they suddenly shutdown the Sebastian Aho line, which has been a thorn in the Capitals side the past six games? Again, probably not.

Yet, as we’ve seen before, a series can swing on a fluke. A missed chance. A weird deflection. You don’t have to control five-on-five play to win a series, much less a game. The 2017 Penguins had a CF percentage higher than 50 one time in the first two rounds against the Blue Jackets and Capitals. They beat the Blue Jackets and later the Capitals. The Capitals lost in Game 7.

The numbers for the series this year could provide us a good look at where the Capitals went wrong in the series in the case of a Capitals loss. But with a win tonight, the numbers won’t matter in the slightest.

So what do the Capitals need to do tonight? Shutting down the Aho line would be a good start. Jumping out to an early lead to rattle Petr Mrazek would be another. Getting production from the Kuznetsov line, at both ends of the ice, would be a welcome addition, too.

The advanced numbers are going to tell us how Game 7 played out. But there’s no time to look at High-Danger chances, or possession numbers, or whatever else you want to.

dark. Next. In Game 7, anything can happen. It's anyone's guess who comes out on top

Right now, it’s time to win, numbers be damned.

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