Comparing The Capitals Goalies To The Leagues Best

The goalie position for the Washington Capitals this season has been fairly up and down.

Braden Holtby has mostly had a rough season but has still turned in some good performances. Ilya Samsonov has been tremendous for the majority of the season. One guy has been playing average, at best, the other has been great. Therefore, it’s been an up and down year for the goalies.

There’s been debate, or thoughts going around that it’s not the goalies that are to blame for the recent struggles but the defense. That particularly goes for Holtby’s game for most of this season. He’s getting left out to dry by the defense night after night.

To me, there is definite truth in that. My argument would be that what the goalies are there for. When the defense breaks down it’s their job to bail them out. Samsonov has done a terrific job this season, Holtby has not.

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So what we’re going to do today is compare a few stats. We’re going to show how the Capitals goalies are doing compared to the top goalies this season in the NHL. We’ll compare them to the best because that’s what everyone wants to be. The best. Not average.

What we’re hoping this will reveal is how are the top goalies are playing and what kind of shots and defense are they getting compared to D.C’s tandem.

I’ll point out this is both the Capitals goalies and the top three favorites for the Vezina this season. Just to be clear, I didn’t pull three random goalies out of nowhere.These three have a legit chance to be named the leagues best goalie at the end of the season.

We’ll start with the simplest of stats. Goals against average. We’ll show the stats then show you the league ranking in parentheses. The rankings will be goalies who have played at least 1,000 minutes this season. Fifty-four goalies have played 1,000+ minutes this season.

Connor Hellebuyck – 2.67 (18th)

Tuuka Rask – 2.14 (1st)

Ben Bishop – 2.38 (8th)

Ilya Samsonov – 2.38 (7th)

Braden Holtby – 3.17 (49th)

Next up is save percentage.

Hellebuyck – .920 (11th)

Rask – .929 (2nd)

Bishop – .924 (8th)

Samsonov – .917 (16th)

Holtby – .894 (50th)

There’s not a whole lot to say here. Everyone knows these stats if you follows these teams. It just shows you the obvious of who is playing well and who isn’t. The only thing you could get from those two numbers is Hellebuyck is the worst of the top three and is still the favorite for the Vezina. That tells you how his team is playing.

The next stats we’ll look at is what kind of support are they getting defensively. When these guys are in the net are they getting peppered with shots. Are the shots dangerous or not? First we’ll look at shots per game.

Hellebuyck – 30.84

Rask – 29.43

Bishop – 29.43

Samsonov – 25.52

Holtby – 28.13

Now how many of those shots are high danger shots?

Hellebuyck – 8.52

Rask – 6.78

Bishop – 7.45

Samsonov – 7.04

Holtby – 7.65

There is a couple of interesting numbers here I think. Samsonov faces a lot less shots than the other four men on this list. For the people claiming Samsonov gets more help than Holtby, you’re kind of right. But you’re still kind of wrong as well.

Holtby and Samsonov both face about the same percentage of high danger shots. Both right around 27% of the shots they see a night are high danger shots. The same can be said of Hellebuyck, he’s also in the 27% range. Rask and Bishop have a bit of an easier time, Rask around 23% and Bishop around 25%.

It’s the high danger save percentage is what separates these guys.

Hellebuyck – .819 (22nd)

Rask – .862 (3rd)

Bishop – .851 (5th)

Samsonov – .809 (34th)

Holtby – .773 (53rd)

This is when your team needs you most. They’ve broken down, they’ve let the opposing team in the house, they need you to make a save. Two of these guys are excellent in this stat, you have two average guys then you have the second worse number out of goalies to play 1,000 minutes or more.

We’ll just look at a couple of more stats then call it a day. This stat will also tell us who is having a good or bad season. Goals saved above average. How many goals are you saving compared to the average goalie. A positive number is good, a negative number is bad. Easy. The higher the number the better.

Hellebuyck – 15.33 (5th)

Rask – 18.86 (1st)

Bishop – 16.26 (2nd)

Samsonov – 4.50 (21st)

Holtby – -15.57 (53)

This next stat is high danger goals saved above average.

Hellebuyck – 2.65 (20th)

Rask – 10.77 (4th)

Bishop – 10.86 (3rd)

Samsonov – -.56 (33rd)

Holtby – -11.32 (51st)

I think the GSAA tells you a lot. You have three goalies who are having a great season. You have a goalie who is having a very good rookie season. Finally you have a goalie who just is not playing up to his standards.

We can blame the Capitals defense if we want. You’d be somewhat right to do so. The defense has not been good. This is a team that wins on offense and did that a lot earlier in the season. Things will tighten up from here on out and it remains to be seen if the Capitals can do that.

Compared to the other goalies though, the Capitals duo isn’t getting much more work on a nightly basis. Especially compared to the favorite for the Vezina award Connor Hellebuyck. The difference is he’s making more saves, particularly more than Holtby.

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Defense is going to be a major focal point going forward. The goalies also need to improve going forward. Holtby more than Samsonov. If the Capitals can’t get better goaltending it could be another quick exit in the playoffs.

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