Washington Capitals vs Islanders Series Preview: Looking At The Stats

We are finally here!

At this time of the year we’ere usually starting to get fired up for players coming back to teams home cities and getting ready for training camps. Instead, this seemingly cursed year of 2020 has given us playoff hockey in mid August. Better late than never. The Washington Capitals have secured the number three seed in the eastern conference and will play old friend Barry Trotz and his New York Islanders in the first round.

Before that series drops the puck on Wednesday afternoon I think it would be a little foolish if we didn’t take a look at some stats. I should point out, most of these stats will be from the restart of the season. I find it a bit off to post and analyze stats that came from October, November and December. Sports is a “what have you done for me recently” business and eight, nine or ten months ago is not recent, at least in sports terms.

With that being said we’ll break our own rules right off the bat. This season the Capitals went 2-2 vs the Islanders, both teams averaged 3.50 goals against each other.

More from Capitals News

• Breaking down the Rookie Camp roster
• Hear what Magic Johnson said about Alex Ovechkin
• Capitals announce Rookie Camp schedule
• Breaking down the 2023-24 Capitals national TV schedule
• Capitals Alumni Weekend is coming back

There were several Capitals that had good stats vs the Isles this past season. Carlson led the way with 5 points, one goal. Backstrom had 5 points as well, all being assists though. Ovechkin scored 3 goals with 4 points. Oshie also had 4 points with 2 goals. Vrana, Kuznetsov and Wilson all chipped in with 2 goals. Hagelin and Eller both scored one.

As for the Islanders. Beauvillier may be a guy to watch vs the Capitals. He scored 6 points in the four games this season, 2 goals from him as well. Both Toews and Nelson put up 5 points, Toews with 3 goals and Nelson with 2. Komarov and Bailey had 4 points, Bailey had zero goals and Komarov potted one. Cizikas and Barzal both had 3 points, all of Cizikas’ points were goals, all of Barzal’s were assists. Eberle, Leddy and Lee all had 2 points, Eberle’s were goals and Leddy and Lee’s were assists.

The goalie matchup will be former Capitals netminder Semyon Varlamov vs Braden Holtby. Varlamov was 1-2 vs his former team, he had a 3.39 goals against average and a .896 save percentage. Holtby was 0-1 in 3 appearances vs the Islanders. He had a 3.85 GAA and .857 save percentage.

Varlamov is 4-6-1 against the Capitals in his career with a 2.74 GAA and a career save percentage of .924. Holtby’s career stats look much better going 16-6-3 vs New York, with a 2.44 GAA and a .918 save percentage.

Both goalies have been good for their teams in this restart. Varlamov has the advantage stats wise. He has a 1.77 GAA and a .932 save percentage. He is saving .923 of the high danger shots he’s seeing. Holtby’s stats do not look as good, but he’s been good for Washington. He has a 2.64 GAA and a .904 save percentage. He’s only saved .720 of the high danger shots he’s seen.

When looking at the Islanders stats so far these playoffs, they’re very up and down. You have some stats that are top ten in the league, others are bottom ten. Here is a list of their stats and ranking.

Shot attempts % – 50.87% -11th

Scoring chance % – 48.09% -16th

High Danger shot attempts % – 53.97% -6th

Goals for per game – 3.25 -8th

Goals against per game – 1.75 -5th

Power play – 25% -7th

Penalty kill – 71.4% -22nd

Shots per game – 30.5 -13th

Shots against per game – 25.8 -2nd

So what stands out here? I think a few things. The shot attempts and scoring chances are average at best and even below average when talking about the scoring chances. The high danger attempts are pretty good though. To me, that says the Islanders are good at guarding their own house while getting into scoring areas of their opponents. They also have a low shots against per game saying they block a lot or force shots wide.

As for players to watch for. These are the guys that have gotten off to good starts. Beauvillier again leads the team, he has 3 goals and 5 points. Pulock, Toews and Bailey all have 4 points, Pulock has one goal and Toews and Bailey both has 4 assists. Pageau has 3 goals, Eberle and Nelson both have 2 goals with an assist and Barzal has one goal with 2 helpers.

Now we move on to the Capitals. How do their stats look in this restart? There are a couple of good stats, but they need to improve on most.

Shot attempts% – 46.15% -15th

Scoring chance% – 45.37% -19th

High danger attempts% – 40.91% -21st

Goals per game – 1.67 -20th

Goals against per game – 2.00 -8th

Power play – 10% -18th

Penalty kill – 100% -T 1st

Shots per game – 25.5 – 23rd

Shots against per game – 26.7 -4th

Not too much to like here, but there are a couple of good things. The Caps aren’t allowing that much, several defensive stats look good. They’re only allowing two goals a game which is good, they allow the fourth fewest shots per game, that’s very good, and they have yet to give up a power play goal. The only other teams to have a 100% PK? Pittsburgh and Toronto. They will finish with a 100% power play, not sure that’s much consolation to those teams however.

As for the other stats, Washington has to pick it up. The scoring chances are pretty bad and the high danger attempts are really bad. Both of those can be a desire thing. How much will does this team have to get to the dirty areas on the ice? How much punishment are you willing to take in those scoring areas in the middle of the ice? That will be something to watch early in this series I believe.

As for how have individual players been contributing? That doesn’t look too pretty either. Radko Gudas leads the team in points, and he played a full game less than everybody. He has two points, both assists. Ten guys have one point, five have a goal, those five guys are Oshie, Panik, Kuznetsov, Boyd and Wilson. Eller, Kovalchuk, Backstrom, Hagelin and Orlov all have one assist.

I don’t think I’m alone in saying I think the Capitals lacked urgency in the round robin games. They weren’t the only team in that situation to play iffy hockey. Boston and Dallas are two top teams that have gotten off the slow starts as well. A lot of people are saying these teams are using the games as warm up games.

I don’t think that’s the best strategy myself, but we’ll see. I don’t think hockey is a sport that you can just flip a switch like the Capitals are going to have to do. They’re rusty and they kind of look it. The Islanders however are coming off a series win. They’ve been playing playoff like hockey. It’s the same argument as a Presidents’ trophy winner coasting into the playoffs while the bottom seeds are playing playoff hockey for the last few weeks of the season.

I’m not here to give predictions. I’m not going to try to predict Caps in 5 or Islanders in 7 or anything like that. But I do expect the Capitals to control this series when talking about possession. The question you have to ask after that is one I’ve already asked. How well will they be able to get into the scoring areas? Can they out grind the Islanders?

Grinding is the Islanders game. The Capitals will be able to out skill New York every game. But, we’ve seen where that can get you in the playoffs time and time again. The Caps had the skill advantage over Carolina last year and the Hurricanes eliminated them. The Blue Jackets were heavily out skilled vs Tampa Bay and Toronto in consecutive years and Columbus knocked both of them out.

This is the kind of team I’ve been wondering if the Capitals can beat all season. The high pressure grind it out teams. We’re going to get our answer very soon. It all starts Wednesday afternoon.